QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM)
As of 2026-11-06 · 8/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -22% · upside +18%
XOM is not a hidden value: at $166.00 (N1) it trades at 2.55x book (N11), only 11.9% below its 52-week high (N2), after a +45.0% one-year run (N3). The source set gives no XOM TTM revenue, EBITDA, net income, EPS or cash-flow multiple (S1), so section 13's book-multiple framework is the only common base; I use it for all three cases. Base case: 2.55x book ≈ $166, 0%; downside 2.0x book ≈ $130, -21.5%; upside 3.0x book ≈ $195, +17.7%, roughly 0.8:1 reward/risk. Strong cash flow, buybacks and net cash support the asset, but refining margins are historically extreme, volumes are shrinking, and the forward P/E already sits above the peer industry average (S17, S21). The rule is not met either way, so this is a pass, not a long or short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $166.00
- Market cap: $677.17B
- Price / book: 2.55x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 earnings were $15.4 billion versus $7.5 billion a year earlier, and $34.1 billion for 9M 2026 versus $22.3 billion, with the increase driven by price and historically high refining margins (Energy Products margin driver +$7,660 million) rather than volume — oil-equivalent production fell 273 kboe/d and chemical and specialty sales volumes declined. Cash generation was strong: 9M 2026 operating cash flow of $57.9 billion versus $39.3 billion, funding $15.1 billion of buybacks and $12.9 billion of dividends, with total debt down to $34.3 billion (11.2% debt to capital). Results include items that are not operating run-rate: a $448 million Q3 2026 Upstream asset-sale gain, a $(1,897) million YTD Energy Products identified-item loss (impairments plus Middle East supply disruptions on hedges) and $(1,980) million of unfavorable Q3 derivative timing effects in Energy Products. The only forward guidance in the filing is capex of $27-29 billion for 2026.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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