Studies
Every study is pre-registered: the trials and the pass bar are fixed before the data is read, and the result is published whether it passes or fails. Backtested by QS Desk.
Year-out ATM options bought when implied vol is at most 0.9x realized
Calls pass and puts fail. Cheap year-out ATM calls returned +0.62 per option over the every-month baseline, with band [+0.21, +1.04] and +0.45 on the 2022+ holdout, across 602 trades in 2016-2026. Cheap puts did worse than the baseline (-0.18, band entirely below zero). The calls pass is judged at the pre-registered family of 10 trials; it would not survive deflation against every trial the desk has run (lower bound about -0.015).
FAILDo the posted option trades in Zero to Profit, Vol. 2 make money for a reader who follows them?
No. Following the 1,009 posted option trades (calls and puts) lost money under both exit rules: -$13,979 when selling on the author's sell posts, and -$11,799 under a fixed rule of half off at +100% and all out at -50%, one contract each. Both stayed negative at zero and at double commissions. The hit rate was about 30%, and the winners were not big enough to pay for the losers. The main cause is the entry gap: a minute after a post, the ask was already above the posted price on 90% of trades (median $0.06). One squeeze-day fill accounts for about $9,000-$10,000 of the loss, and both rules still lose without it.
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