QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Vistra Corp. (VST)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -66% · downside -80% · upside -48%
At $124.80 the market is paying $61.05B EV, or 11.3x TTM EBITDA of $5.42B, but the FY2020-FY2025 cycle averages $2.98B EBITDA; at 9.3x-13.8x that normalized base is worth only about $25-$65/share after $19.26B net debt and 335.64M shares. The TTM figures are much stronger ($5.42B EBITDA, $2.25B FCF), so the short case is a normalization call, not a claim that current operations are collapsing; if TTM persisted, 13.8x would support about $165/share, which I treat as a separate regime rather than the base. The balance sheet (about 6.5x normalized EBITDA) and the volatile FY2021-FY2025 operating record mean today's price capitalizes peak earnings. Base $43 (-65.5%), downside $25 (-80.0%), upside $65 (-47.9%) versus $124.80, so the rule is short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $124.80
- Market cap: $41.89B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $19.21B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 11.3x
- P/E (TTM): 20.7x
- Price / book: 7.64x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The supplied sources describe Vistra as an integrated retail-plus-generation business with about 5 million retail customers and 43,641 MW of net generation capacity at 12/31/2025, reorganized from six reportable segments in the FY2020 10-K to five in the latest 10-K. The financial tables show a cyclical record: revenue was $17.70B in FY2021, $15.63B in FY2022, and $17.59B in FY2025, while operating income was negative in FY2021-FY2022 and positive in FY2023-FY2025. No TTM figures or one-off breakdowns are in the supplied sources, so I keep operating income separate from net income and do not treat net income as operating profit.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Vistra's stated advantage is structural, not brand-led: an integrated retail-plus-generation model that management says dampens commodity swings and stabilises cash flow, built on roughly 44,000 MW of capacity (Dec 31, 2025), over 230 TWh of expected annual generation, about 5 million retail customers and 6,448 MW of nuclear with licences running to 2037-2053. The FY2020-FY2025 record does not show the promised stability: operating income ran -$1.51B (FY2021), -$1.18B (FY2022), $2.66B (FY2023), $4.08B (FY2024), $1.91B (FY2025), and operating cash flow -$206M to $5.45B across the same years. The moat that survives scrutiny is scale and asset position in deregulated ERCOT/PJM, not pricing power: it competes on price with regulated utilities, IPPs and other REPs, with subsidies and new entrants named as competitive forces.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA rose to $1,744M from $1,332M in Q2 2025 while net income slipped to $305M from $327M, with the net-income gap driven by a $472M unrealized commodity-hedging loss in Q2 2026 versus a $16M gain in Q2 2025. Revenue was $4,017M in Q2 2026 vs $4,250M in Q2 2025, and retail volumes fell to 31,800 GWh from 33,267 GWh. The 10-Q highlights higher East capacity prices, Texas gas dispatch, Lotus and Martin Lake contributions, and gives hedging and PJM capacity-auction outlook; Item 1A says no material risk-factor changes. The sources did not provide TTM, cash, inventory, buyback, or formal guidance figures.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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