QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
VISA INC. (V)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -9% · downside -33% · upside +14%
The 8.4x P/E (N24) and 7.0x EV/EBITDA (N22) that make V screen as the cheapest large-cap network are an artifact: the $198.37B market cap (N6) multiplies the $422.70 price (N1) by 469.28M shares taken from a 2010 filing cover (N5), a count that cannot be squared with 61M class A shares repurchased for $20.45B in FY2026 alone (S94). On the price the tape actually shows, V trades at $422.70 / $13.27 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS = 31.9x trailing, and 28.68x forward (S9), a premium to the 18.76x industry average (S85), for a business management just guided to low-double-digit FY2027 revenue and EPS growth (S73) with client incentives up 21% in Q4 and 25% of payments volume up for renewal (S94, S73). That is why section 13's per-share comparison is the wrong base: the earnings base (FY2026 net income $23.50B, EPS $13.27 non-GAAP / $12.32 GAAP, S94) is right, but the divisor on price is stale, so I keep section 13's earnings and re-apply it per share for all three cases. No cycle-average normalization is used here: the base is current TTM earnings, not a FY2019-FY2026 average. Base case 26x my $14.73 FY2027 EPS estimate (13.27 x 1.11) = $383, -9.4%; downside 20x x $14.20 (7% growth) = $284, -32.8%; upside 32x x $15.00 (13% growth) = $480, +13.5% - the rule is met neither long nor short, so watch, with the skew pointed down.
Key numbers
- Share price: $422.70
- Market cap: $198.37B
- Latest financial period: FY Sep 2026 to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (FY Sep 2026): $45.90B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Sep 2026): 7.0x
- P/E (FY Sep 2026): 8.4x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Visa runs a four-party payments processing network and earns service, data processing, international transaction and other revenue, less client incentives; it says it does not issue cards, extend credit or bear cardholder credit risk. FY2026 scale was 355B payments and cash transactions, $18T total payments and cash volume, over 5B credentials and more than 400M seller locations, versus FY2020's 204B transactions, $11.3T volume, 3.5B credentials and nearly 70M merchant locations. The FY2026 report frames growth across consumer payments, CMS and VAS, adding stablecoin and agentic-commerce initiatives, while FY2020 disclosed one reportable segment and framed growth around consumer payments, new flows and VAS. Reported FY2021-FY2026 revenue rose from $24.11B to $45.90B and operating cash flow from $15.23B to $23.73B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources support a scale-based advantage: calendar 2025 Visa payments volume was $14,567B versus Mastercard $8,812B and American Express $1,888B, with 336B total transactions and 5,142M cards. FY2021-FY2026 revenue rose from $24.11B to $45.90B and operating income from $15.80B to $28.11B, while FY2026 operating cash flow was $23.73B against $1.67B capex. But competition is broad—global networks, local/regional networks, wallets/fintechs, stablecoins and RTP—and regulation/localization can limit the advantage. The sources do not quantify switching costs, ROE, or brand premium.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The quarter ended June 30, 2026 showed net revenue of $11,633M, +14% YoY, and nine-month net revenue of $33,764M, +15%, driven by cross-border volume, payments volume and processed transactions. Operating expenses grew faster than revenue (GAAP +19%, non-GAAP +17% in the quarter), and GAAP net income was $5,628M versus non-GAAP $6,296M after excluding litigation, severance and other items. Nine-month operating cash flow was $16,342M, buybacks were $16.5B, and the 10-Q gives no quantitative guidance, only a qualitative digital-commerce outlook and liquidity comfort.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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