QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC (UNH)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -19% · upside +12%
At $394.20 UNH trades at the given 22.2x TTM net income of $15.88B, above the ~21.7x median of ELV/CI/CNC/HUM; holding that multiple gives a 0% base case, 18x gives -19%, and 25x gives +12%. The market is not missing a bargain: it is pricing a recovering insurer whose TTM operating income of $23.92B is still below FY2024's $32.29B, and whose Q3 margin beat leaned on reserve releases and divestiture gains. Cash flow and capital return are real, but the sources give no equity figure to build P/B or ROE, so the earnings multiple is the only usable valuation anchor. Pass—no margin of safety at this price.
Key numbers
- Share price: $394.20
- Market cap: $353.22B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $449.66B
- P/E (TTM): 22.2x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
UnitedHealth Group is a health care and well-being company with two platforms, Optum and UnitedHealthcare, run through four reportable segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx and UnitedHealthcare. It earns premiums on risk-based plans, product revenue from pharmacy care services and fees for care delivery, analytics, technology and administrative services; FY2025 revenue was $447.57B. Between FY2020 and FY2025 the four-segment structure stayed in place, but Optum Rx managed spend, Optum Insight backlog and Optum Financial accounts and AUM grew, and UnitedHealthcare Global dropped out of the current segment description. FY2025 operating income was $18.96B, down from $32.29B in FY2024 even as revenue rose from $400.28B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
UNH has real scale—FY2025 revenue of $447.57B, more than 390,000 employees and registered UnitedHealth Group, Optum and UnitedHealthcare trademarks—but the FY2025 profit record does not show a durable margin moat: operating income fell to $18.96B and net income to $12.06B while revenue rose. Competition is broad, and the company frames advantage around execution in innovation, technology, engagement and pricing, not a single patent or licence. The sources do not name competitors, market shares, book value or ROE.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) was a flat-revenue, higher-margin quarter: consolidated revenues $112,694M versus $113,161M as 1.8 million fewer people served offset pricing, while earnings from operations rose 52% to $6,563M (margin 5.8% vs 3.8%) and the medical care ratio fell to 88.4% from 89.9%. Diluted EPS was $4.56 versus $2.59, helped by $224M of net portfolio divestiture gains and a $95M loss-contract reserve release booked inside operating costs, so part of the increase is non-operating in nature. Cash generation was strong ($25.1B operating cash flow for nine months 2026 vs $18.6B) and capital return continued ($5.0B buybacks, dividend raised to $9.28 annually), but Medicare Advantage and Medicaid funding commentary is explicitly negative and risk factors are unchanged.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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