QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case +24% · downside -17% · upside +49%
The market is capitalizing a headline GAAP EPS miss and a -2% Mobility revenue line while Q3 2026 operating income rose 30% to $1.447B, non-GAAP operating income rose 38% to $2.304B and TTM free cash flow is $10.42B [S28][S98][N16]. I value the TTM cash-flow base, not the distorted FY2025 net income: using section 13's 5%-9% FCF-yield band, 6% on $10.42B gives $173.7B market cap / 2,041.90M shares = $85.1 (+24%), 9% gives $56.7 (-17%), and 5% gives $102.1 (+49%) [N16][N5][N1]. That is a real mispricing candidate but not a long by the rule, because the base is below +30% even though the credible FCF downside is better than -25%; the 12x EV/EBITDA cross-check at $42 (-39%) is the harsher tail [N12][S1]. The balance sheet is not the issue ($10.07B cash versus $17.66B debt, roughly 1.0x TTM EBITDA per section 13), so the swing factor is the multiple and whether 20%+ bookings growth and FCF conversion survive the Delivery Hero/ezCater integration [N18][N19][N12][S31][S95].
Key numbers
- Share price: $68.55
- Market cap: $139.97B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $56.53B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 18.9x
- P/E (TTM): 40.4x
- Price / book: 5.06x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Uber is a three-segment marketplace platform (Mobility, Delivery, Freight) that connects riders with independent drivers, eaters with couriers and merchants, and shippers with carriers, monetized through bookings on over 15,000 cities in more than 70 countries. The business has changed fundamentally between the oldest and newest annual report: the ATG/self-driving segment was sold to Aurora in January 2021, so the company now reports three segments instead of four, and Delivery has broadened from restaurant meals into Grocery & Retail, Uber Direct white-label delivery and advertising. The financial profile also changed: revenue grew from $11.14B in FY2020 to $52.02B in FY2025, operating income swung from -$4.86B in FY2020 to +$5.57B in FY2025, and operating cash flow from -$2.75B to $10.10B, on capex of only $336.0M in FY2025. FY2025 net income of $10.05B is larger than pre-tax income of $5.80B, so the net line is flattered by a tax benefit and operating income is the cleaner measure of the business.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not show a durable competitive advantage. Uber operates in highly fragmented markets with low barriers to entry and low switching costs, names well-capitalized rivals in every segment, and says it has used fare cuts, Driver incentives and consumer discounts to compete. Operating economics have improved sharply (FY2025 operating income $5.57B; operating cash flow $10.10B; capex $336M), but the source gives no segment margins or returns, and FY2025 net income of $10.05B sits above pre-tax income of $5.80B, so net income is not clean proof of operating advantage.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) showed revenue of $14.766B, up 10% YoY, with Gross Bookings of $59.819B, up 20% constant currency, Trips up 16%, and MAPCs up 14%; the UK Mobility business-model change cut revenue by $1.1B. Operating income rose to $1.447B, or 10% of revenue, from $1.113B, or 8%, in Q3 2025. GAAP net income fell to $512M because Q3 2026 included a $476M pre-tax equity-revaluation loss while Q3 2025 had a large tax benefit and investment gains. Nine-month 2026 operating cash flow was $7.852B and free cash flow $7.613B, with $10.1B of unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at Q3 2026 end.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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