QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -11% · downside -28% · upside +9%
I use section 13's TTM to 2026-09-30 base (revenue $93.82B, EBIT $19.38B, EBITDA $33.84B, net income $11.30B) and do not average earnings across the cycle [N11][N12][N13][N14]. At 7.1x EV/EBITDA, $33.84B x 7.1 = $240.3B EV, less $92.62B debt plus $5.62B cash = $153.3B equity / 1,059.27M shares = $144.7, -10.7% from $162.01; at 6.2x it is $115.9 (-28.4%), and at 8.1x it is $176.6 (+9.0%) [N13][N21][N20][N5][N1]. The P/E route is harsher: 11.6x on $11.30B TTM net income gives $123.7, -24%, so the premium 15.2x P/E is not supported by peers [N14][N28][S1]. The market is not missing a broken business—Q3 2026 EPS rose 34% and 2026 adjusted FCF guidance was raised—but it is still paying a premium for decelerating postpaid adds, rising churn and a levered balance sheet [S98][S67]. That makes this a watch, not a long or short: the rule is not met until price falls toward the $124-$145 peer-value floor or EBITDA growth plus buybacks closes the gap [N18][N19].
Key numbers
- Share price: $162.01
- Market cap: $171.61B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $93.82B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.6x
- P/E (TTM): 15.2x
- Price / book: 3.05x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
TMUS is a U.S. wireless and broadband provider that sells postpaid/prepaid service, devices and accessories, and complementary products; FY2025 revenue was $88.31B and operating income $18.28B, versus FY2020 revenue of $68.40B and operating income of $6.64B. Its customer base rose from 102.1M at FY2020 to 142.4M at FY2025, with 81% of FY2025 service revenue from postpaid. The Sprint merger closed April 1, 2020, and the newest 10-K shows an expanded brand set including Mint Mobile and Ultra Mobile plus 5G broadband, fiber, device protection, financial services and advertising. The sources do not provide segment profitability, ARPU/churn, EIP credit quality, or Q2 2026/TTM figures.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
T-Mobile enters FY2025 as the second-largest U.S. wireless provider by total postpaid and prepaid customers, and its FY2023-FY2025 margin history (operating income $14.27B, $18.01B, $18.28B versus $6.54B in FY2022 on flat-to-lower revenue) is the strongest evidence that it has a real, if contested, advantage — most credibly from network quality and scale rather than from price. The moat is not pricing power: management itself says the saturated industry will 'further intensify' price and margin pressure, and names AT&T, Verizon, cable MVNOs (Comcast, Charter, Cox, Altice), EchoStar and satellite entrants as competitors. Spectrum holdings and 5G leadership are the stated pillars of the advantage, but both are capex-hungry and contestable (6G, AI-RAN, spectrum scarcity). Capital intensity has fallen (capex $13.97B FY2022 to $9.96B FY2025), which is what converted revenue into the higher operating profit.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) showed 7% total revenue growth to $23.584B, led by postpaid +9% and equipment +13%, while prepaid fell 8% and wholesale/other fell 7%. Operating income rose 25% to $5.661B and net income rose 27% to $3.455B, but net income included UScellular and network-restructuring charges; Adjusted EBITDA was $9.620B, up 11%. Operating cash flow fell 2% to $7.341B while Adjusted Free Cash Flow rose 5% to $5.071B; the 10-Q excerpt gives restructuring/synergy outlook but no full-year 2026 guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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