QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/ (TJX)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction medium · base case 0% · downside -20% · upside +19%
On the section 13 TTM base to Aug 1, 2026 ($62.36B revenue, $9.44B EBITDA, $6.07B net income), TJX is worth about today's $135.30 at the quoted 15.4x EV/EBITDA and 24.5x P/E, so the base case is 0%. Downside uses 12.2x x $9.44B = $115.17B EV; +$6.00B cash - $2.87B debt = $118.30B / 1.09997B = $107.55 (-20.5%). Upside uses 18.4x x $9.44B = $173.70B EV; +$6.00B cash - $2.87B debt = $176.83B / 1.09997B = $160.75 (+18.8%). The market is not missing TJX's quality; it is debating Marmaxx softness and one-off tariff refunds, and even after a 20% drawdown the shares lack the margin of safety that a long requires, while the downside is not bad enough for a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $135.30
- Market cap: $148.83B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Aug 1, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $62.36B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 15.4x
- P/E (TTM): 24.5x
- Price / book: 13.97x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
TJX is a global off-price apparel and home fashions retailer: 5,214 stores across four segments (Marmaxx 2,603, HomeGoods 1,042, TJX Canada 589, TJX International 835) plus Sierra (145, reported inside Marmaxx), and six branded e-commerce sites, selling brand/designer merchandise at generally 20%-60% below full-price retailers' regular prices without promotional pricing. It makes money by buying opportunistically close to need from ~21,000 vendors in more than 100 countries and turning inventory fast through a deliberately low-cost store and distribution structure. Revenue went from $32.14B in FY2021 (Covid-depressed) to $60.37B in FY2026, with pre-tax income $89.0M to $7.30B and net income $90.0M to $5.49B; FY2026 operating cash flow was $6.87B against $1.96B capex. Between the FY2021 and FY2026 annual reports the model is unchanged but the footprint is larger (4,500+ to 5,200+ stores, four to six e-commerce sites, buying organization 1,100+ to 1,400+ Associates) and management guides a long-term path to about 7,000 stores.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources describe a scale-driven off-price model rather than a patent or licence moat: over 5,200 stores globally and ~377,000 associates (as of January 31, 2026) support opportunistic buying, lean inventory and a 'treasure hunt' assortment, sold under owned banners (TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, TK Maxx and others) whose trademark rights the company expects to endure. The record backs it: revenue rose from $32.14B (FY2021) to $60.37B (FY2026) while net income rose from $90.0M to $5.49B and pre-tax income reached $7.30B, with operating cash flow of $6.87B against capex of $1.96B. The advantage is not exclusivity - the 10-K calls retail apparel and home fashion 'highly competitive' and concedes some competitors are larger with greater financial resources. Sources give no gross or operating margin, ROE/ROIC, or market share, so return-on-capital proof cannot be shown here.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended August 1, 2026) sales rose 5% to $15.2B and consolidated comp sales rose 4%; diluted EPS was $1.36 vs $1.10, but the quarter included a $0.14 net tariff-refund benefit, so margin expansion is not clean operating margin. HomeGoods comped +7% and Marmaxx only +1%; inventory per store was +2%, cash was $6.0B, and TJX returned $1.3B in Q2. The 10-Q gives capex, buyback and store-target plans, plus continuing tariff-refund uncertainty, but no explicit sales or EPS guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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