QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP (SPCX)
As of 2026-11-06 · 9/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -65% · downside -68% · upside -50%
Section 13's P/B-only 'no valuation possible' base is wrong because sections 3 and 10 give Q3 2026 operating income and Adjusted EBITDA; I use annualized Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.809B x 4 = $35.236B as the one base. Even at 14.8x EV/EBITDA (META TTM, S1) plus $51.02B net cash (N7-N8), equity is $572.5B, -64.9% vs the $1,631.11B market cap (N6); at 21.6x (NVDA TTM) the upside is still -50.2%. The market is not missing growth - Q3 2026 revenue rose 161.4% and operating income turned positive - but it is capitalizing a capex-heavy, customer-concentrated business at 59.9x sales versus 1.1x for the industry, and Q3 net income included $1.025B other income plus a $390M tax benefit. I would short; the problem looks valuation-driven and permanent at this price, not temporary.
Key numbers
- Share price: $130.75
- Market cap: $1,631.11B
- Price / book: 9.23x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $14,575M, up 161.4% y/y, led by SI and Connectivity; operating income turned positive at $2,791M, but net income included $1,025M other income and a $390M tax benefit. Connectivity operating income was $2,367M, Space slipped to a $(7)M operating loss, and the Cursor merger closed 2026-08-14 adds revenue plus amortization and share-based compensation. The 10-Q does not give a cash balance, inventory, buybacks, or explicit financial guidance; the risk-factor update reports no material changes.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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