QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case 0% · downside -30% · upside +34%
At $16.21 (N1), SOFI is not a deep-value long: on the section 13 TTM base, 28.5x (N22) on $737.9M net income to common (N13) gives $21.04B / 1,297.84M shares = $16.21, or 0%, because the multiple already equals Nu's 28.8x and sits far above Capital One's 11.7x while ROE is only 6.5% (N21) and P/B is 1.86x (N23). Downside is 15x earnings = $11.07B / 1,297.84M = $8.53 (-47%) or 1.3x $11.30B equity = $11.32 (-30%); upside is 33.6x earnings = $19.10 (+18%) or 2.5x book = $21.77 (+34%). The tape says sentiment, not results—Q3 2026 revenue +44%, 2027 target $6.4B/$0.90 EPS, and 16.9% short interest (N25)—but the rule is not met on either side. Verdict: watch; interesting, not yet.
Key numbers
- Share price: $16.21
- Market cap: $21.04B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.73B
- P/E (TTM): 28.5x
- Price / book: 1.86x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
SoFi's current business is a bank holding company with three reportable segments—Lending, Technology Platform and Financial Services—built around a member-centric app and cross-sell loop. Lending earns net interest income and fees from personal, student and home loans and retains servicing; Financial Services includes checking/savings, card, investing and crypto; Technology Platform earns fee revenue from banking/API platforms. The oldest annual report on file is a pre-merger blank-check company with no operations, while FY2025 shows $619.4M revenue and $525.9M pre-tax income. FY2024 net income exceeded pre-tax income, so the notes keep that net figure separate from operating earnings.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The 10-K describes no durable advantage: SoFi competes on seven fronts at once and itself concedes that incumbent banks, brokerages and larger technology institutions are bigger and better known, and could undercut its platform pricing. What the numbers show is scale being built fast — revenue $103.3M FY2020 to $619.4M FY2025 and pre-tax income from -$328.5M FY2020 to $525.9M FY2025 — plus a bank charter that is a real licence barrier but also a cost (FDIC insurance expense $19.3M for 2025). Returns on capital are still thin: FY2025 net income of $481.3M on $10.49B of equity, and FY2024's $479.1M net income exceeded its own $233.3M pre-tax income, so it was lifted by a non-operating tax item.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 9/30/26) showed accelerating top line: total net revenue $1.385B, +44% YoY, with net interest income $929.5M (+59%) doing most of the work and fee-based revenue $570.6M vs $408.7M. Net income was $241.0M (+73%) and diluted EPS $0.18 vs $0.11, with the credit provision only $14.7M (+60%) and noninterest expense growing slower (+31%) than revenue. Lending carried the quarter (origination $16.9B, +71%; contribution margin 55%), Financial Services grew (+25% revenue), and Technology Platform shrank (-24% revenue, -56% contribution profit) after a large client exited. Deposits reached $51.3B, up $5.8B in the quarter, while the SoFi Technologies total risk-based capital ratio fell to 17.0% from 22.9% at 12/31/25.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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