QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
SITIME Corp (SITM)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -72% · downside -87% · upside +1%
The market is paying 17.97x TTM EV/Sales and 476x P/E for AI-driven revenue and the Renesas deal, while TTM to Sep 30 2026 EBIT is only $6.0M and the FY2020-FY2025 cycle averaged -$41.5M operating income and $11.4M FCF. I use section 13's TTM base rather than extrapolating the >$1B exit run-rate, because a cyclical must be valued on normalized earnings and this cycle saw revenue halve. Base case: 4.65x TTM revenue $683.0M = $3.176B EV; plus $324.4M cash = $3.500B equity; /30.21M shares = ~$116, -72% vs $416.92. Downside: 11.2x TTM EBITDA $112.6M = $1.261B EV; plus cash = $1.586B equity; /shares = ~$52, -87%; upside: top peer 18.15x revenue = $12.396B EV; plus cash = $12.721B equity; /shares = ~$421, +1%. The short rule is met: base below -30% and upside below +25%.
Key numbers
- Share price: $416.92
- Market cap: $12.59B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $683.0M
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 109.0x
- P/E (TTM): 476.0x
- Price / book: 3.61x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
SiTime is a fabless Precision Timing semiconductor company selling oscillators, clock ICs, resonators and synchronization software mainly through distributors, with some direct and online SiTimeDirect sales, into communications/datacenter/enterprise, automotive/industrial/aerospace/defense, and mobile/IoT/consumer. FY2020-FY2025 revenue rose from $116.2M to $326.7M but was cyclical, falling from $283.6M in FY2022 to $144.0M in FY2023 before recovering to $202.7M in FY2024 and $326.7M in FY2025; FY2025 gross profit was $175.0M while operating income was still -$67.0M and operating cash flow was $87.2M. The business changed from the FY2020 10-K's silicon timing supplier with over 250 applications and three expertise areas to the FY2025 10-K's Precision Timing platform with over 400 applications, added clock products from Aura in Dec 2023, TimeFabric software in June 2025, Titan resonators in Sept 2025, and a pending ~$1.5B cash-plus-stock Renesas timing acquisition announced Feb 2026.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
SITIME's advantage is design execution in Precision Timing, not a durable brand, scale, network, or license moat. The FY2025 10-K describes a highly competitive timing market with many larger, more established competitors and better brand recognition, and cites design/development plus customer retention as how SITIME holds position. The FY2020-FY2025 XBRL shows positive gross profit every year but operating losses in FY2023, FY2024, and FY2025, so returns have not persisted through the cycle. High customer and supplier concentration adds evidence against pricing power.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $298.7M, up 257% y/y, including $86.3M of TPD sales after the July 1, 2026 Renesas Timing acquisition; nine-month revenue was $569.7M, up 167%. Gross margin fell to 51.6% in Q3 2026 from 53.5%, with acquired-intangible amortization and inventory step-up costs offsetting revenue leverage, while total opex rose 140% to $145.8M including $21.3M of acquisition-related costs. Cash was $324.3M at September 30, 2026 after the $1,499.3M acquisition payment and $1,350.0M convertible note issuance; no specific guidance was given and AI/datacenter demand duration is called uncertain.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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