QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)
As of 2026-11-04 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -1% · downside -40% · upside +112%
On the same TTM revenue base as section 13 ($675.7M), RIOT's own 7.87x EV/Sales gives EV $5.32B; less $88.0M of net debt including leases, divided by 375.18M shares, is about $13.94, essentially the $14.02 price. The downside at CLSK's 4.79x is about $8.39 (-40.2%) and the upside at IREN's 16.64x is about $29.73 (+112.1%), so the spread is multiple-driven rather than earnings-driven. I use TTM revenue, not cycle-average revenue: FY2022-FY2025 average revenue of $391.0M at the same three multiples implies $4.76-$17.11, which shows the current price requires TTM-scale revenue to persist. The market is not missing the data-center story, since 1,151 MW and ~$38B contracted revenue are public, but those rents land in 2027-2028 and depend on project debt, tenant reimbursements and continued bitcoin sales. Deep value needs a margin of safety; here the base case is flat, TTM EBIT is -$1.42B and FCF is -$901.1M, and cash covers only about 0.7 years of burn, so this is a watch, not yet a long or a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $14.02
- Market cap: $5.26B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $675.7M
- Price / book: 2.46x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
RIOT is a vertically integrated bitcoin miner and power-infrastructure operator with two reportable segments, Bitcoin Mining and Engineering; at Dec 31, 2025 it had 38.5 EH/s deployed and mined 5,686 bitcoin in FY2025. The latest 10-K also shows a strategic push into data-center leasing, including the January 2026 AMD lease for 25 MW at Rockdale. Financials are volatile rather than smoothly profitable: revenue grew from $259.2M in FY2022 to $647.4M in FY2025, but operating income swung from -$512.7M to +$153.6M to -$622.2M, and FY2025 operating cash flow was -$572.9M. The oldest annual-report source is only an Item 1 heading, so a full oldest-to-newest business comparison is not supported.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show no proven durable moat: Riot calls its Texas power portfolio, low-cost power and vertical integration advantages, but bitcoin mining is highly competitive and capital-intensive, and data-center expansion faces larger established operators. Financial history is volatile: revenue rose to $647.4M in FY2025, but operating income fell to -$622.2M and operating cash flow was -$572.9M after a positive FY2024. Competitors include large public and private miners, individual miners in pools, and data-center operators and infrastructure providers.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue mix shifted toward Data Center and Engineering while Bitcoin Mining revenue fell on lower bitcoin prices; mining margins compressed, with cost including miner depreciation at 111.2% of production value per bitcoin in Q3 2026. Riot sold 20,264 bitcoin in the first nine months of 2026 for about $1.5 billion to fund data center buildout and repaid its $200 million facility. New 10-Q risks center on Texas large-load rules, transmission cost allocation, and IROL curtailment risk at Corsicana.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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