QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
PFIZER INC (PFE)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +30% · downside -69% · upside +112%
I keep section 13's FY2020-FY2025 normalized cycle base: cycle FCF of $15.29B at a 7.0% FCF yield values equity at $218.4B, or $38.32/share, +30.4% versus $29.39. Cycle net income is $13.41B versus TTM net income of only $4.03B and TTM FCF of $11.79B, so most of the upside depends on normalization, not today's earnings. The market is focused on the 41.5x TTM P/E and COVID/patent-cliff headlines, but TTM FCF already implies roughly $29.54/share at the same yield, so the stock is not statistically cheap on current cash flow. The problem is that the 2026-2030 patent/MFN cliff and $62.60B debt could make TTM the new base, and the -69% downside if $4.03B net income persists at 13.1x is too large for a long. Watch: normalized value is interesting, but the rule is not met until the downside narrows or the price falls.
Key numbers
- Share price: $29.39
- Market cap: $167.52B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 27, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $63.62B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 17.0x
- P/E (TTM): 41.5x
- Price / book: 1.88x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Pfizer's revenue and cash flow are cyclical in the FY2020-FY2025 XBRL data: revenue peaked at $101.17B in FY2022, fell to $59.55B in FY2023, and was $62.58B in FY2025, while operating cash flow fell from $29.27B in FY2022 to $8.70B in FY2023 and $11.70B in FY2025. The newest 10-K shows a concentrated business—12 products over $1B were 65% of FY2025 total revenues, Eliquis 13%—facing COVID product declines, patent/exclusivity expiries in 2026-2030, and IRA/MFN pricing pressure. The oldest FY2020 excerpt shows a smaller, more international mix (48% international; seven $1B products were 53% of revenues), while recent Metsera/Seagen deals have concentrated business development in obesity and oncology.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources support at most a scale/portfolio advantage, not a durable moat: Pfizer has multi-billion R&D and a broad portfolio, but its FY2025 10-K describes intensely competitive markets where generics and biosimilars erode branded sales and challenge patents before expiry. The six-year record is cyclical: revenue was $101.17B in FY2022, $59.55B in FY2023 and $62.58B in FY2025; pre-tax income was $34.73B, $1.06B and $7.52B. Cash flow followed the same pattern: operating cash flow was $29.27B in FY2022, $8.70B in FY2023 and $11.70B in FY2025. No TTM, margin or ROIC data is in the sources.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was $16.583 billion, essentially flat versus Q3 2025 ($16.654 billion), with an operational decrease of $57 million and an unfavorable FX impact of $15 million; excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, revenue rose 7% operationally. First nine months 2026 revenue rose 2% to $46.067 billion, but Q3 cost of sales improved to 24.3% of revenues from 25.0% while the 9M ratio worsened to 25.3%. Q3 pretax income was $3.4 billion, up $51 million, but 9M pretax income fell $3.3 billion to $5.9 billion on impairments, legal charges and contingent-consideration increases; the 10-Q also announced more cost-savings programs and flagged patent-expiry and tariff/pricing risks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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