QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU)
As of 2026-11-06 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction low · base case +31% · downside -22% · upside +105%
I do not use section 13's FY2025 base because it is ten months stale and ignores Q2 2026's first >$1B quarterly net income and 33% ROE; all three cases use annualized Q2 2026 net income of $4.244B. Base: $4.244B x 18x = $76.4B / 4,855.67M shares = $15.73, +30.8% from $12.03. Downside: $4.244B x 10.8x = $45.8B / 4,855.67M = $9.44, -21.5%. Upside: $4.244B x 28.2x = $119.7B / 4,855.67M = $24.65, +104.9%. The market is treating a Brazil political shock as if it were a permanent operating impairment, while current run-rate earnings, a 33% ROE, 39% FXN revenue growth and a $1B buyback leave the stock at about 13.8x annualized Q2 2026 earnings, so the long rule is met.
Key numbers
- Share price: $12.03
- Market cap: $58.41B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): $15.77B
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 20.4x
- Price / book: 5.17x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Nu Holdings is a digital consumer-finance platform that has gone from US$737.1 million of revenue in FY2020 to US$15,774.7 million in FY2025 (up 37% from US$11,517.1 million in FY2024), converting from losses (-US$171.5 million in FY2020) to US$2.87 billion of net income and US$3.87 billion pre-tax income in FY2025, with equity built from US$438.1 million to US$11.29 billion. It earns mainly on credit: card interest was 29.1% of FY2025 revenue and card/prepaid fees 10.9%, down from 33.0% and 12.0% in FY2024, as the product mix broadens. The operating footprint is Brazil, Mexico and Colombia plus technology/support in the US and Uruguay, with licensed entities historically being a financeira (SCFI), brokerages/DTVM, asset managers and an insurance broker, not a deposit-taking bank. Licensing is now the main structural change: Mexico conversion into a multiple bank approved in April 2025, and a US national bank application filed with the OCC on September 30, 2025 with preliminary conditional approval on January 29, 2026.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Nu’s FY2025 20-F claims a durable advantage from innovation speed, customer-centricity, operating leverage and efficiency, brand and trust, a scalable platform and regulatory licenses, and management says its model is difficult to replicate; the sources do not provide third-party market-share, cost or ROE proof. Competition is explicitly from large incumbents, major technology companies and smaller fintech entrants. FY2020-FY2025 shows rapid scale and a swing to net income of $2.87B in FY2025, while the U.S. national bank charter is only preliminary conditional as of Jan 29, 2026 and Mexico’s license process is still critical. The main financial evidence is dollar growth and equity build, not margin or return ratios, which the data does not give.
- ○ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest quarterly source is a Q2 2026 6-K (quarter ended June 30, 2026), not a 10-Q. Q2 2026 total revenue was $5,875.7M, up 39% YoY FXN and 6% QoQ FXN, and net income was $1,061.1M, up 49% YoY and 17% QoQ, with ROE at 33%. The balance sheet expanded: credit portfolio $39.4B and deposits $45.3B, while asset quality was mixed, with 15-90 NPL improving but 90+ NPL rising. The release gives no explicit financial guidance, cash balance, or buyback update.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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