QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Nurix Therapeutics, Inc. (NRIX)
As of 2026-11-04 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -33% · downside -63% · upside +72%
The FY2022-FY2025 cycle never earned money: revenue averaged $63.5M while operating losses averaged $209.4M and operating cash outflow averaged about $166M, so there is no normalized profit to capitalize (S2, S24). The TTM to Aug 31, 2026 shows $701.9M revenue, $298.4M EBITDA and $369.8M FCF, but $653.2M of Q3 revenue was the Roche license; I therefore do not use 8x TTM EBITDA as the base and instead treat TTM as a reference (N10, N12, N16, S28, S98). Base case: half TTM revenue of $351.0M at 1.50x EV/Sales = $526M EV; plus $720.2M cash less $55.7M leases = $1.19B equity / 109.25M shares = about $10.9 (-33% vs $16.26) (N10, N17, N18, N21, N5, N1). Upside: 8.0 x $298.4M EBITDA = $2.39B EV; plus $720.2M less $55.7M = $3.05B / 109.25M shares = about $27.9 (+72%); downside full reversion to net cash of $664.5M = about $6.08 (-63%) (N12, N17, N18, N5, N1). At $16.26 the stock is 3.5x EV/EBITDA and a 20.8% FCF yield, but the base is -33% and the downside is -63%, so the long rule (base +30%, downside no worse than -25%) is not met and the short rule fails on the +72% upside; watch, with the cash pile and 18.9% short interest as supports (N22, N25, N27, N28).
Key numbers
- Share price: $16.26
- Market cap: $1.78B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Aug 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $701.9M
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 3.5x
- P/E (TTM): 6.0x
- Price / book: 1.83x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Nurix does not sell a product; revenue is collaboration and license money from Gilead, Sanofi and Pfizer, $38.6M FY2022, $77.0M FY2023, $54.5M FY2024 and $84.0M FY2025, so the -29% FY2024 decline is milestone timing rather than a demand cycle. The operating base is a widening loss: operating income -$285.7M in FY2025 versus -$213.0M FY2024 and -$155.1M FY2023, funded from $247.0M of cash at 2025-11-30 and a diluted share count that rose to 86.67M from 67.12M. There is no normalized profit to value here; the operating asset is bexobrutideg, whose Phase 2 DAYBreak CLL-201 began in October 2025 at the 600 mg dose and is designed to support accelerated approval in triple-exposed CLL/SLL. The cycle to normalize over is partner milestones and clinical spend, not units or pricing.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Nurix has no demonstrated durable advantage: it has never booked product revenue, and FY2022-FY2025 revenue ($38.6M, $77.0M, $54.5M, $84.0M) is collaboration income that swings with milestones, while operating loss widened from -$155.1M (FY2023) to -$213.0M (FY2024) to -$285.7M (FY2025). The claimed edge is a belief in 'technology, development experience, scientific knowledge and intellectual property,' not a margin or return record - the 10-K shows accumulated deficit of $1,003.2M at November 30, 2025 and operating cash burn of $249.5M in FY2025. Meanwhile the same filing concedes multiple clinical-staged BTK degraders and at least one clinical-staged CBL-B inhibitor in development, and that no targeted protein degrader has been approved by any regulator. Verdict: no moat visible in the numbers; the asset is patents plus the DEL-AI platform and $592.9M of cash.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 FY2026 revenue is dominated by a one-off $653.2M Roche license, so the $373.1M nine-month net income is not evidence of operating profitability. Q3 FY2026 total revenue was $673.064M versus $7.894M a year earlier; collaboration revenue was $19.908M versus $7.894M. Nurix has no product sales, $1.1B of cash at 2026-08-31, and says that cash funds operations for at least 12 months. The excerpts do not give TTM lines, inventory or buybacks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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