QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case +14% · downside -22% · upside +51%
On the TTM to 2026-09-30 base used in section 13, Newmont earns $16.71B EBITDA, $9.24B net income and $10.07B FCF (N13,N14,N17) and holds about $3.74B net cash (N9,N24). At the midpoint 8.35x EV/EBITDA, 8.35 x $16.71B = $139.53B EV, + $3.74B = $143.27B equity, / 1.03919B shares = about $138, or +14% versus $120.91 (N1,N5,N13,N24), which is not enough for the long rule. The 5.6x downside is about $94 (-22%) and the 11.1x upside about $182 (+51%), so the risk/reward is attractive but the base case is not +30%. I use adjusted/EBITDA and TTM cash flow, not reported Q3 net income ($2.475B vs $2.309B adjusted) or one-off divestiture proceeds, and I treat 2026 as a production trough with 2027 cost/capex headwinds; hence watch, not long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $120.91
- Market cap: $125.65B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $26.61B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.3x
- P/E (TTM): 13.6x
- Price / book: 3.52x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Newmont is a single-commodity price-taker: 85% of FY2025 Sales came from gold, sold as refined metal recovered from doré (or in concentrate), with copper, silver, lead and zinc as co-products. Scale is roughly flat in ounces but not in dollars — revenue went from $11.50B (FY2020) to $22.67B (FY2025) while attributable gold production moved from 5.5 Moz (FY2020) to 5,889 koz (FY2025), because the average LBMA gold price rose from $1,770/oz (2020) to $3,432/oz (2025) and stood at $5,043/oz on February 12, 2026. Between the oldest and newest annual report the portfolio was rebuilt: the Newcrest deal (closed November 6, 2023) added Lihir, Cadia, Brucejack, Red Chris and Tanami, and six non-core mines plus the Coffee project were sold through Q4 2025, leaving 13 reportable segments at December 31, 2025 versus five geographic regions in the FY2020 report. FY2025 operating cash flow was $10.33B against $3.04B of capex, and $2.30B went to buybacks.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Newmont has scale and ore-body quality, not a franchise: it produces roughly 5% of world mined gold and is the largest gold producer, with its stated competitive position resting on the size and grade of its ore bodies in favorable jurisdictions and on relative cost control. Costs are set by location, ore grade and input prices, there are no material patents, licenses or franchises shielding it, and land access comes from host governments carrying political risk. The record shows commodity leverage rather than pricing power: net income was -$429.0M in FY2022 and -$2.49B in FY2023, then $3.35B in FY2024 and $7.08B in FY2025 as average gold rose from $1,941/oz (2023) to $2,386/oz (2024) to $3,432/oz (2025), with no hedging to smooth it.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales rose to $6,363 million from $5,524 million, and nine-month sales to $19,788 million from $15,851 million, on higher realized gold and silver prices despite lower gold volumes. Adjusted EBITDA was $3,951 million (up 19%), reported net income attributable was $2,475 million and adjusted net income was $2,309 million, with costs and AISC higher year over year. Cash generation was strong ($9,477 million operating cash flow and $7,261 million free cash flow for nine months), cash was $8,827 million, and Newmont repurchased $5,241 million of stock; the NGM contribution and $1.95 billion cash payment are expected in Q4 2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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