QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -25% · downside -42% · upside +15%
Section 13's TTM-to-Mar-2026 base is seven months stale, so I keep it only for one-base comparability and cross-check the call against Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.24 and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92-$4.02 (S98, S5). On that base NEE earns $15.09B EBITDA and $8.18B net income but trades at 18.4x EV/EBITDA and 10.70x EV/Sales versus peer EV/EBITDA of 10.5x-15.4x; paying the top peer 15.4x gives about $65/share, -25%, while the high-peer P/E case gives only about $100/share, +15% (S1, N13, N14, N23, N25, N1). The operating story is real—FPL rate-base growth and a 36.7 GW NEER backlog support 8%+ adjusted EPS growth—but Q3 2026 GAAP EPS of $2.28 versus adjusted $1.24 shows the reported jump is mostly hedges and other one-offs (S28, S98). I would watch: the stock is expensive on EBITDA but not enough to satisfy the short rule, and a re-rating to peer multiples is the risk, not a collapse thesis.
Key numbers
- Share price: $86.95
- Market cap: $181.32B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Mar 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $25.90B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 18.4x
- P/E (TTM): 22.2x
- Price / book: 3.28x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
NEE makes money two ways: FPL, a rate-regulated Florida utility that earns a regulator-set return on invested capital (35,963 MW net generating capacity, more than 6 million customer accounts at 12/31/2025, authorized regulatory ROE of 10.95%), and NEER, a largely contracted wholesale generator/developer plus regulated transmission and gas/power marketing (37,505 MW net capacity, 35,627 MW of it contracted at 12/31/2025 with ~14-year weighted-average contract life). Revenue ran from $17.00B in FY2020 to $25.80B in FY2025 and operating income from $5.12B to $8.28B, while diluted shares went from 1,968.8M to 2,070.6M with no buybacks in any year FY2020-FY2025. FY2025 net income of $6.83B is above pre-tax income of $4.53B, so tax effects, not operations, explain the gap; operating income of $8.28B is the cleaner read. The business changed shape between the two 10-Ks: three reporting segments (FPL segment, Gulf Power, NEER) in the FY2020 filing became two (FPL, NEER, with NEET folded into NEER), FPL solar went from 2,270 MW to 7,932 MW, and NEER's pitch moved from pure renewables to renewables-plus-gas-plus-nuclear.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
NEE has a durable but regulated advantage, not a market-power one. Its core moat is FPL's franchised Florida territory — 226 franchise agreements running to 2055, more than 6 million customer accounts, and cost of service below self-generation for a significant majority of customers — monetised through an authorized regulatory ROE of 10.95% under a rate agreement effective January 2026 through at least December 2029. NEER provides scale (about 80 GW of net generation and storage capacity at December 31, 2025) and contract visibility (about 95% of net capacity under long-term contracts), but it competes largely on price in a fragmented wholesale market. The margin record is mixed: FY2025 revenue of $25.80B was higher than FY2023's $24.80B, yet FY2025 operating income of $8.28B was below FY2023's $10.24B, and FY2025 net income of $6.83B exceeded pre-tax income of $4.53B, so net income is not a clean measure of the franchise.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The quarter ended 9/30/2026 (10-Q filed 10/21/2026) shows modest top-line growth — consolidated operating revenues $8,090M vs $7,966M in Q3 2025 and $22,325M vs $20,912M for the nine months — and net income attributable to NEE of $4,775M ($2.28 diluted) vs $2,438M ($1.18) in Q3, $10,102M ($4.82) vs $5,300M ($2.57) for nine months. The bulk of that jump is not operating: after-tax non-qualifying hedge gains were $2,246M in Q3 2026 vs $52M, and $2,843M vs $(649)M for nine months, with $2,041M of the Q3 after-tax swing sitting in Corporate and Other from interest-rate derivatives. The operating story is FPL ($1,620M vs $1,463M Q3 net income, new retail base rates plus a larger rate base) and NEER ($1,491M vs $1,275M), with heavily negative free cash flow funded by $18,232M of long-term debt issuance and ATM equity; no buyback is disclosed and no numeric EPS guidance appears in these excerpts.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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