QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -82% · downside -90% · upside -47%
The market is capitalizing a pipeline and one profitable quarter as durable platform earnings, but the verified record is still a post-COVID cycle: FY2025 revenue was $1.94B with an operating loss of -$3.07B, and TTM EBIT is -$3.32B [S24,S27,N11]. The cyclical base is FY2020-FY2025 normalized EBITDA of $2.06B [S2], against TTM EBITDA of -$3.09B and TTM FCF of -$1.24B [N12,N16]; even at the high-end comp multiple of 26.4x, $2.06B x 26.4 = $54.25B EV + $1.129B net cash = $55.38B equity / 399.24M shares = $138.7/share, 46.6% below the $259.80 price [N1,N5,N18,N19]. My base at 8.4x normalized EBITDA is $2.06B x 8.4 = $17.30B EV + $1.129B net cash = $18.43B / 399.24M shares = $46.2/share, -82.2%; downside at 4.4x is $25.5/share, -90.2%; upside at 26.4x is $138.7/share, -46.6%. The $950M litigation settlement and $3.0B zero-coupon convertible are real but excluded from normalized operating earnings, so they do not flatter the operating picture [S36,S33]. The call is short; base, downside and upside all point the same way, so conviction is high.
Key numbers
- Share price: $259.80
- Market cap: $103.72B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $2.23B
- Price / book: 15.34x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Moderna is an mRNA-platform company whose FY2025 revenue was $1.94B, largely from three commercial respiratory vaccines: Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA. The business is in a post-COVID downcycle: revenue was $19.26B in FY2022, $6.85B in FY2023, $3.24B in FY2024 and $1.94B in FY2025, with operating losses and negative operating cash flow in FY2023-FY2025. It is funding a 35-program pipeline, 6 late-stage, while cutting capex and pursuing cost efficiency. The provided sources have no TTM data or product-level economics, so the cyclical view can only use annual figures.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Moderna's asserted advantage is its mRNA platform plus integrated discovery, development and manufacturing capabilities, but the sources show no durable commercial moat. Its COVID vaccine competes directly with Pfizer/BioNTech and other vaccines, its RSV entry was late with minimal sales, and a competitor contract excludes it from many European COVID markets through year-end 2026. FY2022 revenue of $19.26B fell to $1.94B in FY2025, while operating income swung from $9.42B in FY2022 to -$4.24B, -$3.94B and -$3.07B in FY2023-FY2025; the sources do not provide TTM figures.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The only Q2 2026 10-Q material supplied is the MD&A section/date and the risk-factor update; the update says risk factors are unchanged from the 2025 10-K. The excerpts contain no Q2 2026 sales, margin, inventory, cash, buyback, or guidance numbers, so no operating takeaway can be quantified from these sources.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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