QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/ (MAR)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -52% · downside -70% · upside -34%
I use section 13's normalized cycle base—FY2020-FY2025 average operating income of $2.84B plus $0.162B average D&A, or ~$3.01B EBITDA—rather than TTM EBITDA of $4.49B, because the cycle included a -50% revenue trough and TTM looks peak-like. At the peer midpoint of 22.9x (16.5x-29.3x), EV is $68.9B; less net debt including leases of $17.365B gives $51.6B equity, or ~$200/share on 257.50M shares, -52% versus $416.47. The market is capitalizing TTM earnings at 27.5x EV/EBITDA and 40.4x P/E while normalized FCF is only ~$1.78B versus TTM $3.46B, so the price embeds cycle-level margins persisting. Downside at CHH's 16.5x is ~$125 (-70%); upside at HLT's 29.3x is ~$275 (-34%), leaving no positive scenario on the normalized base. The call is a short; even if TTM EBITDA persists, peer multiples imply only ~$220-$443/share, so that case does not rescue the normalized risk/reward.
Key numbers
- Share price: $416.47
- Market cap: $107.24B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $27.42B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 27.5x
- P/E (TTM): 40.4x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Marriott is an asset-light global lodging franchisor/operator/licensor: the FY2025 system was 9,805 properties and 1,779,936 rooms in 145 countries, with a ~4,100-property pipeline, while franchised/licensed units grew and company-operated units fell versus FY2020. The six-year XBRL shows FY2020 revenue of $10.57B and operating income of $84.0M, recovering to FY2025 revenue of $26.19B and operating income of $4.14B; FY2020 net income was -$267.0M, so operating earnings were positive but net income was not. Segment and brand reporting broadened between the FY2020 and FY2025 10-Ks, but the provided sources have no Q2 2026 or TTM data.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Marriott's advantage is distribution scale plus an asset-light, fee-based model: roughly 17% of the U.S. hotel room market and 4% outside the U.S. in 2025, with brands licensed to owners rather than properties owned (FY2025 D&A only $145M against $26.19B revenue). The cycle shows an operating margin of 0.8% in FY2020 recovering to a 16.7% peak in FY2022 and 15.8% in FY2025, on operating income of $4.14B, so the franchise/management platform stayed profitable through the trough. The moat is real but contested: Marriott names Hilton, IHG, Hyatt, Wyndham, Accor, Choice and Best Western as brand rivals, Airbnb/Vrbo and the OTAs as channel rivals, and its own 10-K flags premature termination of owner agreements and OTA leakage as live threats. Reported returns are distorted by capital return, not losses: equity is -$3.77B at FY2025 after $3.30B of buybacks in the year alone.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q3 2026 10-Q shows a clean operating acceleration: worldwide comparable systemwide RevPAR +6.5% in Q3 2026 (ADR +4.8%, occupancy +1.1 pts) and +4.8% for the first three quarters, with U.S. & Canada the strongest region at +7.4% in Q3. Gross fee revenues rose 14% to $1,522 million in Q3 2026 and 13% to $4,533 million in the first three quarters, led by franchise fees (+15%, co-branded credit card fees +$68 million) and incentive management fees (+22%). Two operating drags sit below the fee line: owned/leased net revenue fell to $41 million from $70 million in Q3 2026 (renovations plus $35 million of third-party agreement costs), and cost reimbursements, net, turned to $(121) million for the first three quarters. Non-operating items to keep apart: impairment charges inside D&A (Note 7) and one-off tax effects (a $29 million non-U.S. valuation allowance release in Q3 2026 versus a $91 million prior-year tax reserve release).
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.