QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
LINDE PLC (LIN)
As of 2026-11-06 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -19% · upside +16%
Base is TTM to Sep 30 2026, not an averaged cycle: at 20.0x TTM EBITDA of $12.99B, EV is $259.8B; less $23.62B net debt and divided by 459.08M shares gives about $514, roughly 0% versus $515.25. The market is not missing the quality—long-term contracts, pass-through economics, scale and 8-9% adjusted EPS growth are visible—but it already pays 20.0x EV/EBITDA versus the only usable comparable at 16.5x and 33.8x P/E. The $425M restructuring, $11B backlog and electronics growth are real catalysts, yet the arithmetic is -19% at 16.5x to +16% at 23x, so the rule is not met. I would watch for a better entry or evidence that EBITDA can reach about $14.9B at a held 20.0x; until then there is no deep-value edge.
Key numbers
- Share price: $515.25
- Market cap: $236.54B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $36.24B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 20.0x
- P/E (TTM): 33.8x
- Price / book: 6.00x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Linde makes money by producing and distributing industrial gases through long-term on-site contracts, merchant liquid deliveries and packaged cylinders, plus an Engineering business that designs and builds gas plants; FY2025 sales were $33,986M and operating income $8.92B. Across the FY2020-FY2025 DATA, revenue rose from $27.24B to $33.99B, operating income from $3.32B to $8.92B, and operating cash flow from $7.43B to $10.35B, while buybacks cut diluted shares from 531.16M to 472.19M. The newest 10-K versus the oldest shows a lower non-US sales share (approximately 64% in 2025 vs 69% in 2020) and fewer employees (65,177 vs 74,207), but these sources do not give segment-level revenue/profit or one-off item detail.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
Sources support advantages from scale and geographic diversification, contract pass-through clauses, and proprietary technology, but they do not name competitors or give market share. FY2020-FY2025 shows operating income rising from $3.32B to $8.92B on revenue of $27.24B to $33.99B, with FY2025 operating cash flow of $10.35B. The record is not clean: chemicals/energy and metals/mining customers are cyclical, and the sources flag dependence on key personnel.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) sales rose 9% to $9,404M on 3% price, 2% volume, 1% cost pass-through, 1% currency, 1% acquisitions and 1% engineering, with nine-month sales up 9% to $27,474M. Reported results were pulled down by one-offs: $425M of cost reduction program and other charges cut Q3 reported operating profit to $2,150M (22.9% margin, -9%) and GAAP EPS to $3.66 (-11%); adjusted operating profit was $2,763M (29.4% margin, +8%) and adjusted EPS $4.59 (+9%). Gross margin compressed on cost inflation and cost pass-through (cost of sales 52.8% of sales vs 50.8%), while nine-month operating cash flow rose 5% to $7,680M and the company bought back $2,606M of shares net. The 10-Q carries no numeric guidance and discloses no new risk factors.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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