QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
COCA COLA CO (KO)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -28% · downside -51% · upside -15%
At the 2026-11-06 price of $96.03, KO trades at 27.0x TTM EV/EBITDA and 28.2x TTM P/E, but normalized FY2020-FY2025 average EBITDA is $12.13B versus $16.36B TTM, so today's price needs TTM-level profitability to persist. Using the current 27.0x on normalized EBITDA gives $327.5B EV; after $28.10B net debt and $1.72B leases, equity is $297.7B, or $69.20/share, about -28%. Downside at 19.2x gives $47.21/share (-51%), and upside at 31.5x gives $81.89/share (-15%), both below today's price. The market is pricing TTM cash flow, not the cycle average, but because the base case is -28% and the short rule needs at least -30%, this is a watch rather than a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $96.03
- Market cap: $413.13B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Oct 2, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $51.05B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 27.0x
- P/E (TTM): 28.2x
- Price / book: 11.05x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Coca-Cola monetizes brands by selling concentrates and syrups to independent bottling partners; the FY2025 10-K excerpt names EMEA and Asia Pacific segments and a bottler at 10% of net operating revenues. FY2020-FY2025 data show revenue rising from $33.01B to $47.94B and operating income from $9.00B to $13.76B, with FY2024 operating income dipping to $9.99B before recovering. The oldest and newest reports differ most in refranchising language, a new U.S. alcohol subsidiary, and a stronger digital/AI emphasis; the excerpts do not give unit economics or full segment profit.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
KO's durable advantage is brand plus its bottler/distribution network and scale, not a license or pure cost moat: 33.8B unit cases in FY2025 and 2.2B daily servings. The 10-K also shows intense competition from PepsiCo, other global beverage companies, private label, microbrands and powerful retailers. FY2020-FY2025 XBRL shows gross profit $19.58B to $29.54B and operating income $9.00B to $13.76B, positive every year but with a FY2024 dip to $9.99B and weaker FY2024-FY2025 operating cash flow of $6.80B/$7.41B.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The latest 10-Q shows Q3 2026 revenue of $13,380 million, up 7%, and operating income of $4,465 million, up 12%, with gross margin at 63.2% versus 61.5%. Nine-month 2026 revenue was $39,232 million, up 9%, and operating income was $13,496 million, up 13%. Cash and equivalents were $13,454 million at October 2, 2026, inventories were roughly flat, and the main one-off overhang is the $960 million BodyArmor trademark impairment recorded in Q4 2025, not Q3 2026. The sources do not provide TTM figures.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.