QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
IREN Ltd (IREN)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -98% · upside +199%
I use section 13's $900.0M TTM revenue base (N8) and the given 16.67x EV/Sales (S1): 16.67x x $900.0M = $15.0B EV, less $7.33B net debt (N16 $10.85B less N15 $3.52B), leaves ~$7.67B equity against $7.68B market cap (N6), so the base case is ~0%. At RIOT's 8.28x (S1), 8.28x x $900.0M = $7.45B EV, less $7.33B net debt = $0.12B equity, or ~$0.34/share on 357.38M shares (N5), about -98%; at WULF's 33.64x (S1), EV $30.3B less $7.33B = $22.9B equity, ~$64/share, +199%. This is a levered multiple bet, not an earnings valuation: TTM EBIT is -$1.16B (N9), net income -$1.35B (N11) and FCF -$2.46B (N14), while the AI Cloud story has $200M Q1 FY27 revenue, a $20.3B backlog and a $4B ARR target that slipped to Jan/Feb 2027. The long rule fails because downside is a wipeout; the short rule fails because upside to the high-multiple peer is +199% and short interest is 26.5%, so I watch for either a much lower entry or evidence the backlog converts into positive operating cash flow.
Key numbers
- Share price: $21.48
- Market cap: $7.68B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $900.0M
- Price / book: 1.50x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
IREN's FY2026 10-K shows a business transformed from a FY2022 Bitcoin miner into a vertically integrated AI Cloud Services platform that owns data centers, GPUs and software, with about 40MW of operating AI capacity at June 30, 2026 and a roughly 5GW power pipeline. FY2026 revenue was $707.0M, but operating income was -$1.05B and net income -$702.6M, so revenue scale did not translate into reported operating profit. The company is decommissioning Bitcoin mining capacity and aims to finish the shift by December 31, 2026, while adding the NVIDIA partnership, Mirantis software and large project capacity.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not establish a durable competitive advantage for IREN. The company claims vertical integration across the data center, compute and software layers and cites ~5GW of grid-connected power agreements as of June 30, 2026, but the 10-K describes AI Cloud Services as highly competitive and capital-intensive, with better-resourced competitors. Revenue grew every year from FY2023 to FY2026, yet operating income was negative in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2026 (FY2026: -$1.05B), and customer/supplier concentration plus rapid equipment obsolescence are stated risks. The record shows scale without consistent returns, not pricing power.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Quarter ended 2026-09-30: total revenue was $228M vs $240M in the quarter ended 2025-09-30, as AI Cloud Services ($135M) and AI Cloud Lease ($65M) offset Bitcoin Mining falling to $28M from $233M. Net loss was $(263)M vs $385M net income a year earlier, when a $665M unrealized gain lifted results; Adjusted EBITDA was $66M vs $92M and margin 29% vs 38%. Cash was $3,522M and restricted cash $2,256M at 2026-09-30, with major commitments including ~$6.7B of Dell GPU purchases and up to ~$2.4B of GPU 2.0 financing. Management said certain contracted capacity targeted for 2026-12-31 slips to the following quarter, and the top three customers were 28%, 24% and 18% of revenue.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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