QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
INTUIT INC. (INTU)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +14% · downside -23% · upside +38%
The market is right that FY2027 is a reset — revenue growth guided to 9%-10% from 14% in FY2026, TurboTax to +2%-3% after losing 3 points of DIY e-file share — but it may be too pessimistic on the cash engine: FY2026 FCF was $8.66B (N17) for a 9.5% FCF yield (N29) against net debt plus leases of only about $4.96B (N21+N22-N20). My base case uses 18x FY2026 EBITDA of $6.07B (N13): EV $109.3B, less $4.96B net debt/leases = $104.3B equity, or about $390/share on 267.24M shares (N5), +14% from $341.50 (N1). Downside is the section 13 band of roughly $255-270, about -23% mid-band, at 12% FCF yield / 12x EV/EBITDA; upside is roughly $463-481, about +38% mid-band, at 7% FCF yield / 22x EV/EBITDA. That is a favourable risk/reward but the base case does not clear the +30% long hurdle, so this is a watch, not a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $341.50
- Market cap: $91.26B
- Latest financial period: FY Jul 2026 to Jul 31, 2026
- Revenue (FY Jul 2026): $21.45B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Jul 2026): 15.7x
- P/E (FY Jul 2026): 20.0x
- Price / book: 4.81x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Intuit is a two-segment financial technology platform (FY2026: Global Business Solutions 60% of revenue, Consumer 40%) selling subscription software plus payments, capital, payroll and AI-enabled human expertise to small/mid-market businesses, accountants and consumers. Revenue went from $9.63B in FY2021 to $21.45B in FY2026 with operating income of $2.50B to $5.88B and operating cash flow of $3.25B to $8.84B, so the FY2026 net income of $4.57B sits below operating income, not above it. Between the FY2021 and FY2026 10-Ks the company collapsed four segments into two, folded Credit Karma and ProTax into Consumer, grew international revenue from under 5% to about 8% of the total, and repositioned the whole pitch around an 'AI-driven expert platform' with AI agents and human experts.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Intuit's FY2026 10-K claims a durable advantage from innovation, breadth and integration of offerings, ease of use, security, brand and support, and the FY2021-FY2026 record shows scale: revenue rose from $9.63B to $21.45B, operating income from $2.50B to $5.88B, and FY2026 operating cash flow was $8.84B. But the same filing says competition is intense in all offerings, AI can lower barriers, and free/low-cost and public-sector tax competitors are real threats. The sources give no segment margins, ROIC, retention or market-share data to quantify the moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended 2026-04-30) showed revenue of $8,558 million, up 10%, operating income of $4,020 million, up 8%, and net income of $3,064 million, up 9%; YTD revenue was $17,094 million, up 14%. GBS revenue rose 15% on Online Ecosystem, while Consumer rose 8% as TurboTax assisted/money and Credit Karma offset fewer TurboTax federal units. Cash and investments were $6.8 billion; buybacks reduced diluted shares, and the May 2026 restructuring plan carries $300-$340 million of charges mainly in Q4 FY2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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