QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CORNING INC /NY (GLW)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -41% · downside -53% · upside -24%
Short on cycle-normalized value, not on the operating news: FY2020-FY2025 average operating income was $1.39B and average EBITDA about $2.70B, versus TTM to Sep 30 2026 EBIT of $2.92B (N13) and EBITDA of $4.32B (N14), roughly double mid-cycle. On the normalized base, 22.6x EV/EBITDA (N24) x $2.70B = $61.0B EV, less $6.83B net debt and leases (N18, N19, N20) = $54.2B equity, or about $63 on 861.40M shares (N5), -41% from $106.32 (N1); 18.5x gives about $50 (-53%) and even 28.4x gives about $81 (-24%). The balance sheet and cash flow are real (TTM OCF $4.19B, N16), but buybacks are small and shares are rising, so operating strength is already in the price. The only above-price case is TTM peak EBITDA of $4.32B persisting at 28.4x, about $134 (+26%), which is a peak-earnings scenario, not the cycle base used for the rule.
Key numbers
- Share price: $106.32
- Market cap: $91.58B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $17.72B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 22.6x
- P/E (TTM): 42.6x
- Price / book: 6.70x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Corning is a 175-year-old materials-science manufacturer (incorporated in New York in 1936) built on glass, ceramic and optical physics, now organized in five reportable segments plus Hemlock/emerging growth; FY2025 mix was Optical Communications 38%, Display 23%, Specialty Materials 13%, Automotive 11%, Life Sciences 6%, Hemlock and Emerging Growth 9%. The cycle is visible in the numbers: revenue went $14.19B FY2022, $12.59B FY2023 (-11%), $13.12B FY2024, $15.63B FY2025, and operating income went $1.44B, $890M, $1.14B, $2.28B over the same years. The business mix has shifted toward optical/AI data-center connectivity and away from display, and the segment map itself was recast in 2025 when Automotive Glass Solutions was merged with Environmental Technologies into a new Automotive segment.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Corning claims segment-specific durable advantages rather than one company-wide advantage: it says it is the largest worldwide producer of display glass substrates, cites scale/fiber process/IP cost advantages in Optical Communications, and owned about 11,375 unexpired patents at end-2025. The FY2025 10-K also says some competitors are larger with broader product lines, and it flags pricing pressure, customer concentration (3 Display customers were 59% of segment net sales in 2025), sole-sourced key materials and IP enforcement risk. The DATA show operating income and operating cash flow positive every year FY2020-FY2025, but operating income fell from $2.11B in FY2021 to $890.0M in FY2023 before recovering to $2.28B in FY2025.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30, 10-Q dated 2026-10-29) showed net sales of $4,855M, up 18% y/y, with core net sales of $5,081M, up 19%, driven by Optical Communications up 44% on Enterprise/Generative AI demand; gross margin held at 37%. Solar sales rose 37% but segment net income turned to -$7M on capacity ramp, while Glass Innovations fell 3% on memory-price pressure. Core net income was $795M and core EPS $0.91, both up 36%; GAAP net income attributable to Corning was $680M and included a $106M net translated earnings contract gain. The May 2026 Springboard target of a $20B annualized core sales run rate by end-2026 was already exceeded at $20.3B in Q3 2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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