QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE)
As of 2026-11-06 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction high · base case -75% · downside -80% · upside -70%
At $323.27 the market capitalizes GE at $334.06B and an EV of $344.62B, or 29.8x TTM EBITDA [N1,N9,N23,N25], while the supplied FY2020-FY2025 normalized EBITDA is only $6.16B and normalized FCF $4.58B [S2], against TTM EBITDA of $11.55B and TTM FCF of $8.02B [N13,N17]. Section 13's normalized base is imperfect because FY2020-FY2022 include businesses later spun off, but I use it for all three cases for consistency. A midpoint 15.65x normalized EBITDA is $96.4B EV less $11.63B net debt [N19,N20,N21] = $84.8B equity / 1.03335B shares [N5] = about $82/share (-74.6%); the 13.0x downside is $66 (-79.6%) and the 18.3x upside is $98 (-69.7%), all far below today's price. The Q3 2026 order and guidance momentum is real [S5,S24], but the equity only works if TTM EBITDA is a permanently higher base, not a cycle peak; the rule therefore makes this a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $323.27
- Market cap: $334.06B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $52.58B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 29.8x
- P/E (TTM): 36.7x
- Price / book: 19.06x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The supplied source is six years of consolidated XBRL facts, not a full annual report: revenue fell from $75.83B in FY2020 to $29.14B in FY2022 and recovered to $45.85B in FY2025, while pre-tax income swung from -$5.70B in FY2021 to $10.00B in FY2025. Net income was positive in FY2022-FY2025 but only $48.0M in FY2022, and operating income is not reported in any year, so operating earnings cannot be isolated from one-offs. Operating cash flow reached $8.54B in FY2025 while buybacks rose to $7.55B and cash/equity fell; no segment, channel, unit-economics, TTM or pre-FY2020 data are provided.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The source gives no qualitative evidence of an advantage — no brand, segment, licence, market share or named competitor — and the margin line is missing entirely: operating income is blank for all six years FY2020-FY2025, so only pre-tax and net income are available. What is visible is instability, not pricing power: revenue fell -48% from FY2021 ($56.47B) to FY2022 ($29.14B) and at $45.85B in FY2025 is still well below FY2020's $75.83B, while pre-tax income swung -$5.70B (FY2021) to $1.52B (FY2022) to $10.00B (FY2025). The one durable characteristic in the data is cash: operating cash flow was positive in every year, $3.48B (FY2021) to $8.54B (FY2025), and exceeded net income in each year. That supports a cash-generative asset base, not a demonstrated competitive moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) revenue rose 16% to $14,118M and 9M 2026 rose 20% to $39,859M, led by services. Q3 operating margin was 22.5% (+220 bps), while GAAP profit margin was 19.9% (-80 bps) and included a $(210)M insurance loss and $117M retained/sold ownership gains. Cash from operations was $7.3B in 9M 2026, RPO was $212.1B at Sep 30 (+11% from Dec 31 2025), and buybacks were $4.0B in 2026; the CPP acquisition ($11.75B) and supply-chain/inflation risks are new items.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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