QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC (FCX)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -14% · downside -42% · upside +16%
The market is capitalizing TTM EBITDA of $9.35B and a $6.54/lb Q3 2026 copper price, not mid-cycle copper. On FY2020-FY2025 normalized EBITDA of $8.26B, the given 9.8x EV/EBITDA gives $80.9B EV, less $7.86B net debt = $73.1B equity / 1,434.94M shares = $50.9, or -14.3% vs the $59.42 close; TTM EBITDA supports $58.4, so the price is close to TTM, not normalized. Downside at 6.9x is $34.2 (-42.4%) and upside at 12.9x is $68.8 (+15.8%), so the short rule is not met because the base case is not at least -30%, and the long rule is clearly not met. I set aside one-offs (Q1 2026 $0.7B insurance settlement gain and 9M 2026 $146M net charges) and value on operating EBITDA and FCF; the call is watch, not short, because a negative mispricing may be forming but the rule is not met.
Key numbers
- Share price: $59.42
- Market cap: $85.26B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $26.44B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 9.8x
- P/E (TTM): 16.9x
- Price / book: 4.06x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
FCX is a copper-focused miner with FY2025 revenue mix of 75% copper, 15% gold and 8% molybdenum, and FY2025 copper production split 39% U.S., 31% South America and 30% Indonesia. The biggest change from the FY2020 10-K to the FY2025 10-K is PTFI's completion of its smelter and PMR in 2025, making it a fully integrated refined copper and gold producer, while the September 2025 Grasberg mud rush disrupted FY2025 operations. S24 shows a cyclical swing: revenue was $13.89B in FY2020 versus $25.19B in FY2025, with operating income of $2.44B in FY2020, $8.37B in FY2021 and $6.52B in FY2025. The provided sources contain no TTM figures.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
FCX has a scale and ore-body position, not a proven quantified cost moat: it ranked third among copper producers with about 5% of 2025 world mined copper, and supplied about 70% of U.S. refined copper in FY2025 through integrated domestic operations. The DATA show positive operating income and operating cash flow every FY2020-FY2025, but no margin or return ratios and no one-off breakdown, so the advantage is asserted by management rather than measured here. Risks include the September 2025 PTFI mud rush and cyclical input costs/tariff policy; the sources do not name individual competitors or give a cost-curve rank.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenues were $7.546B vs $6.972B in Q3 2025, operating income $2.353B vs $1.972B, and net income attributable to common stock $1.174B ($0.81 diluted) vs $674M ($0.46); 9M 2026 net income was $3.039B ($2.10). The quarter was price-led: copper sales fell to 749M lbs from 977M and gold to 105k oz from 336k, but realized copper rose to $6.54/lb from $4.68 and gold to $4,273/oz from $3,539. Unit net cash costs rose to $2.07/lb from $1.40, and 9M operating cash flow was $5.524B with capex $3.236B. FY2026 guidance is 3.0B lbs copper sales, $1.90/lb unit net cash costs, ~$8.5B operating cash flow and $4.4B capex; 9M returns were $955M including $305M buybacks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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