QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -12% · downside -50% · upside +51%
The market is capitalizing TTM peak margins, not cycle-average earnings: TTM revenue is $16.23B, EBIT $2.80B and EBITDA $3.70B, but TTM EBIT is about 2.5x the FY2021-FY2025 average of $1.10B and the 17.2% TTM EBIT margin exceeds every fiscal year from FY2020 to FY2025. Using section 13's base, a mid-cycle 16.2% EBITDA margin on $16.23B gives $2.63B EBITDA; at 11x that is $28.9B EV, less $0.96B net debt, over 122.28M shares, or about $228 (-12%) versus $259.24. Downside is about $129 (-50%) if $1.93B normalized EBITDA is valued at 8.7x, while upside is about $392 (+51%) if $3.70B TTM EBITDA deserves BKNG's 13.2x. That is not a long and not a rule-meeting short, so it is a watch: the normalized earnings power sits below the price, but the wide outcome range and buyback/short-squeeze support keep it from being a clean short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $259.24
- Market cap: $31.70B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $16.23B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 8.7x
- P/E (TTM): 15.0x
- Price / book: 19.19x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Expedia is an online travel marketplace that monetizes a broad lodging/air/package supply base through consumer brands and B2B partner distribution, plus advertising and media. FY2020-FY2025 data show a cyclical recovery from $5.20B revenue and -$2.72B operating income in FY2020 to $14.73B revenue and $1.87B operating income in FY2025, with operating cash flow positive every year after FY2020. The latest filing highlights cloud/AI investment, alternative-accommodation regulation, and $6.3B face-value debt.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show a scaled travel marketplace with FY2025 revenue of $14.7B and FY2025 operating income of $1.87B, versus a FY2020 operating loss of -$2.72B, but they do not establish a durable moat: management calls competition 'strong and increasing,' cites supplier direct channels with better pricing/loyalty, and says search/metasearch traffic competition raises customer acquisition costs. The claimed advantages are breadth of global supply, B2B travel technology, and three core consumer brands plus One Key loyalty, but no source gives share, retention, take rate, segment margin, or return on capital to prove durability.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) revenue was $4,938M vs $4,412M in Q3 2025, and nine-month 2026 revenue was $12,679M vs $11,186M. Operating income was $1,326M vs $1,036M in Q3 and $2,377M vs $1,451M for nine months, while net income attributable was $1,030M vs $959M in Q3. Cash and cash equivalents were $5,040M at 2026-09-30 vs $5,413M at 2025-12-31, and deferred merchant bookings rose to $12,579M from $10,428M.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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