QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Duke Energy CORP (DUK)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +21% · downside 0% · upside +84%
Section 13's only complete EBITDA/cash-flow base is TTM to Mar 31 2026, which is seven months stale; I keep it for one-base consistency but cross-check it against Q3 2026 clean EPS of $1.99 vs $1.81 and narrowed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.70-$6.80. The market is not missing distress: TTM FCF is -$3.30B on $14.96B capex, debt is $89.84B, and the $103B-plus 2026-2030 capital plan needs external funding. What may be mispriced is the relative multiple: at 11.1x TTM EV/EBITDA DUK is below every peer, and the peer-low 12.3x on $16.91B EBITDA gives $208.0B EV, less $89.84B debt plus $2.14B cash = $120.3B equity, or $154.3/share vs $127.78 (+20.8%); the current 11.1x holds roughly today's price (0%), while 16.0x gives +83.6%. Because the base case is below the +30% long hurdle, even with no downside at the current multiple, this is a watch rather than a long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $127.78
- Market cap: $99.62B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Mar 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $32.52B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 11.1x
- P/E (TTM): 19.6x
- Price / book: 1.83x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Duke Energy at FY2025 (latest 10-K dated 2026-02-26) is a regulated electric and gas utility with two reportable segments: EU&I, with about 8.7 million electric customers and 55,713 MW owned generation, and GU&I, with about 1.8 million gas customers. FY2025 revenue was $31.74B and operating income $8.63B, versus $23.25B and $4.57B in FY2020. The FY2020 10-K reported a third Commercial Renewables segment that is absent from the latest segment structure. The sources contain no 2026 quarterly or TTM figures, so current valuation is out of date.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
DUK's durable advantage is a regulatory franchise, not a brand: GU&I is the sole natural gas provider in its retail territories and rates are state commission-approved to recover cost plus a reasonable return on invested capital, while the electric utilities are regulated on a cost-of-service/rate-of-return basis with exclusive rights but capped returns. FY2025 operating income was $8.63B on $31.74B revenue, but capex of $14.02B exceeded operating cash flow of $12.33B; returns depend on regulators allowing timely recovery. Competition is mainly alternative energy sources, self-generation and potential deregulation, not direct gas-distribution rivals in GU&I's territories. Latest source figures are FY2025 from the 10-K filed 2026-02-26; no Q1 2026 data appears in these sources.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 9/30/2026) was a clean quarter: GAAP reported and adjusted EPS were both $1.99 vs $1.81 in Q3 2025, and nine-month EPS was $5.34 reported / $5.35 adjusted vs $4.81, with GAAP flattered by the Piedmont Tennessee gain and dinged by legal/regulatory settlements. The revenue line is being pulled up by rate-case pricing, riders and weather-normal load growth (data centers included), while fuel, depreciation and interest costs are the drags. Cash flexibility improved by roughly $5.3B of proceeds from the Brookfield minority stake in Florida Progress and the Piedmont Tennessee sale, earmarked for the capital plan. This excerpt has no cash, inventory, buyback or numeric guidance disclosure, so those takeaways cannot be made from these sources.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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