QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -58% · downside -82% · upside -44%
The market is pricing DELL on TTM net income of $11.38B (N12) at 18.7x (N26), but section 13's cycle base is FY2022-FY2026 average net income of $4.26B and FY2021-FY2026 average operating income of $5.65B; TTM EBIT of $14.25B (N10) is about 2.5x that cycle average. Using that same normalized base, DELL is worth $122.2-$154.1 at its own multiples (base midpoint $138.15, -57.7% from $326.80), $60.3 at the HPQ downside multiple (-81.5%), and only $183.0 at the NetApp upside multiple (-44.0%). Even the upside case is below today's price, so the verdict is short, but conviction is medium because the AI backlog and raised FY2027 guide could mean TTM earnings are a new floor rather than a cycle peak.
Key numbers
- Share price: $326.80
- Market cap: $213.07B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jul 31, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $151.20B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 14.1x
- P/E (TTM): 18.7x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The supplied financials show a cyclical business: revenue ran from $86.67B in FY2021 to $102.30B in FY2023, fell to $88.42B in FY2024, then rebounded to $113.54B in FY2026. Operating income trended up to $8.15B in FY2026, but pre-tax and net income diverge from operating income in several years, so I keep operating earnings separate from below-the-line items. Operating cash flow is volatile and capex is steady; the sources provide no TTM, segment, loan-book, or credit-quality data.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources describe a scale-and-distribution advantage (direct sales, end-to-end portfolio, supply chain, global services), but the six-year numbers show it does not show up in gross margin: gross profit has been stuck between $20.14B (FY2021) and $22.71B (FY2026) while revenue went from $86.67B to $113.54B. What did improve is operating leverage below the gross line — operating income rose from $3.69B (FY2021, 4.3% of revenue) to $8.15B (FY2026, 7.2%) and held at $5.41B in the FY2024 revenue trough (-14% versus FY2023). Competition is broad (branded, generic, and IaaS providers buying direct from ODMs), and book equity is negative, so returns cannot be read off ROE.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The provided 10-Q sources for the quarter ended 2026-07-31 contain only section headings, not the MD&A body or risk-factor text. No sales trend, margin, inventory, cash, buyback, guidance, or specific new-risk figures are available to summarize. The sources therefore cannot support quarterly takeaways beyond identifying the filing sections and dates.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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