QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -42% · downside -55% · upside -29%
DoorDash is a real scale platform, but at TTM EV/EBITDA 36.2x, P/E 74.2x and a 3.4% FCF yield the market is already capitalizing years of margin expansion that management will not frame in GAAP guidance. The $17B Instacart deal adds cash/debt, integration and reinvestment risk to a business with low switching costs and intense competition, so the current premium to CART and UBER is not supported by the supplied fundamentals. Holding section 13's TTM EBITDA of $2.04B flat, a 20x peer-anchored multiple gives $45.85B equity value and -41.9%; I do not use GRAB's 52.4x outlier as the upside. Base -41.9%, downside -54.8% and upside -28.9% all sit below today's price, so the call is short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $179.09
- Market cap: $78.86B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $17.06B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 36.2x
- P/E (TTM): 74.2x
- Price / book: 7.36x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
DoorDash's FY2025 10-K describes two revenue engines: Marketplaces (DoorDash, Wolt, Deliveroo) that charge merchants transaction-based fees plus advertising and consumers delivery/service fees, and a Commerce Platform selling white-label Drive and merchant software. From FY2020 to FY2025 the footprint moved from the U.S., Canada, and Australia to Marketplaces in over 40 countries, with 56M+ monthly active users and 35M+ membership accounts at December 2025. FY2025 revenue was $13.72B, operating income $723M, and operating cash flow $2.43B; FY2024 had net income of $123M despite an operating loss of $38M. The provided sources do not include segment P&L, TTM figures, or guidance.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show real scale and a merchant-consumer-Dasher network, but not a durable competitive advantage. Switching costs are explicitly low, local delivery is fragmented and intensely competitive, and competitors include Amazon, Uber Eats, Prosus, Delivery Hero, local incumbents and merchants' own platforms. Operating income only turned positive in FY2025 ($723.0M) after losses from FY2020-FY2024, and the data do not provide margins or returns to prove a moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) showed 34% revenue growth to $4,616 million on 993 million Total Orders and $33,941 million Marketplace GOV (+36%), while Net Revenue Margin slipped to 13.6% from 13.8% mainly on Deliveroo. Contribution Profit was $1,780 million (5.2% of GOV) and Adjusted EBITDA $1,060 million (3.1% of GOV); GAAP net income attributable was $466 million. Operating cash flow was $994 million and Free Cash Flow $787 million. The 10-Q excerpt gives no formal guidance, buyback, inventory balance or cash balance detail.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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