QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -22% · downside -42% · upside +3%
The market is capitalizing TTM peak EBITDA ($29.57B, TTM to Sep 30 2026) at 5.9x and ignoring that on FY2020-FY2025 normalized EBITDA of $21.67B the same $174.49B EV is about 8.1x, near the top of the 5.0x-8.3x peer range. My base case applies 6.5x to normalized EBITDA: 6.5 x $21.67B = $140.86B EV; less $14.32B net obligations including leases = $126.54B equity; divided by 1,182.34M shares = $107.02, -21.5% vs $136.27. Downside at 5.0x is $79.53 (-41.6%) and upside at 8.3x is $140.01 (+2.7%), so the short rule is not met despite poor risk/reward; COP is a watch, not a long. Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.27 versus reported $3.34 shows why one-offs (tax-reserve reversal) must be separated from operating earnings.
Key numbers
- Share price: $136.27
- Market cap: $161.12B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $67.75B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 5.9x
- P/E (TTM): 14.0x
- Price / book: 2.44x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
ConocoPhillips is an independent E&P company that explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and LNG worldwide. In the FY2025 10-K it reports five geographic segments, 2,375 MBOED of total company production, about 9,900 employees, 14 countries and total assets of about $122B. S24 shows revenue of $51.82B and operating cash flow of $19.80B in FY2025, with D&A of $11.50B. From the FY2020 10-K to the FY2025 10-K, segment count fell from six to five, countries from 15 to 14, assets rose from $63B to about $122B and production rose from 1,127 MBOED to 2,375 MBOED.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable moat is supported. ConocoPhillips has scale—one of the world's leading E&P companies by production and reserves with a diversified portfolio—but it sells commodities at market prices and competes with private, public and state-owned companies, some larger. Margins and returns swing with the cycle: pre-tax margin was -23.0% in FY2020, 46.2% in FY2022 and 24.4% in FY2025; ROE was -9.1%, 38.8% and 12.3%. Cash flow stayed positive across the cycle, but the sources give no TTM figures to place beside these annual numbers.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 sales were $19,435 million versus $15,031 million, with the $4,404 million increase mostly price-driven while production fell to 2,302 MBOED. Net income was $4,001 million versus $1,726 million, but Corporate and Other included $182 million of Other income largely tied to tax items, so segment earnings of $3,953 million are the cleaner operating read. Operating cash flow was $7.2 billion and shareholder returns $3.4 billion; Q4 2026 production guidance is 2.32 to 2.36 MMBOED.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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