QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -38% · downside -46% · upside -31%
At $134.76 and a $38.81B market cap, COIN is priced above normalized earnings power: FY2020-FY2025 average net income of $754M at the profitable-peer P/E range of 28.0x-35.6x gives $21.1B-$26.8B, or -31% to -46% versus today, while TTM to Sep 30, 2026 net income is -$701.6M and TTM EBIT only $200.5M. The market is paying 2.78x book for -5.0% TTM ROE and capitalizing the stablecoin/subscription mix shift before it has restored cycle-average earnings; FY2025 net income of $1.26B is the recovery case, not the base. Section 13's upside switches to FY2025 peak earnings, so I keep one normalized $754M base for all three cases because the mode is cyclical. Base at the peer-range midpoint 31.8x = $23.98B (-38.2%), downside at 28.0x = $21.1B (-45.6%), upside at 35.6x = $26.8B (-30.9%), so the rule gives a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $134.76
- Market cap: $38.81B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $5.63B
- Price / book: 2.78x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Coinbase is a fee-based crypto financial platform: FY2025 revenue was $7.18B and operating income was $1.44B, earned across consumer and institutional trading, exchange fees, stablecoins, staking, custody and subscriptions. The annual data show a cycle: revenue fell from $7.84B in FY2021 to $3.19B in FY2022 and recovered to $7.18B in FY2025, while operating income went from $3.08B to -$2.71B to $1.44B. Between the FY2021 and FY2025 reports the product set widened from crypto trading, wallet and staking into the Everything Exchange, Base App and multiple Coinbase One tiers, with customers framed as Consumers, Institutions and Developers.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources support a claimed brand and compliance differentiation, but not a durable cost, network, or switching-cost moat. Operating results are highly cyclical: FY2021 operating income was $3.08B, FY2022 was an operating loss of -$2.71B, and FY2025 operating income was $1.44B on $7.18B revenue. Competition is broad, including less-regulated offshore rivals, decentralized exchanges, traditional finance and fintech, while revenue is concentrated in Bitcoin/Ethereum trading and stablecoin interest income.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q3 2026 10-Q (quarter ended 2026-09-30, filed 2026-10-29) shows a shrinking, cost-heavy quarter: net revenue of $1.2 billion versus $1.8 billion a year earlier, with transaction revenue down 44% to $590.2 million and subscription and services revenue down 20% to $570.2 million. Reported Q3 2026 net income of $718.7 million is not operating profit — it is carried by a $715.0 million gain on crypto assets held for investment; Adjusted EBITDA was $332.9 million versus $800.7 million, and the nine-month figure was a net loss of $34.9 million. Operating expenses did not fall with revenue: technology and development was 39% of net revenue versus 24%, and G&A 27% versus 24%. Liquidity is intact ($8.8 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable investments at 2026-09-30; $785.5 million of nine-month operating cash flow) and the company bought back $1.2 billion of stock, with roughly $2.0 billion left on a $4.0 billion authorization.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.