QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS)
As of 2026-11-06 · 9/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -9% · downside -35% · upside +44%
Section 13's asset-only base is too pessimistic because it ignores the FY2026 core revenue guide of $880-890M and the $25.4B RPO; I use the $885M midpoint and $5.253B net cash after debt and leases. Base: (0.885B x 8.0x + 5.253B) / 0.15097B = $81.69, -8.9% vs $89.68. Downside at QCOM's 4.05x = $58.53 (-34.7%); upside at AVGO's 16.03x = $128.77 (+43.6%). The market is not missing the growth—it already prices ~8.7x FY2026 core sales on a $7.71B EV—but it may underappreciate the cash floor and RPO conversion while correctly discounting negative core operating margins and concentration. Watch, not long (base < +30% and downside worse than -25%) and not short (upside > +25%).
Key numbers
- Share price: $89.68
- Market cap: $13.54B
- Price / book: 1.48x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-06-30) revenue was $180.1 million, up 74% year over year, but the mix flipped: hardware fell 23% to $54.1 million while cloud and other services rose 281% to $126.0 million, so cloud was 70% of revenue versus 32% a year earlier. GAAP gross margin fell to 14% from 31% and the GAAP operating loss widened to $(477.2) million from $(57.2) million, but almost all of that swing is $377.0 million of stock-based compensation (mostly IPO-triggered RSU vesting) plus $44.3 million of non-cash customer-warrant amortization charged against revenue; the company's own core operating loss was $(33.6) million and core net loss $(6.9) million. The prior-year quarter's $309.5 million of net income was not operating profit — it contained a $363.3 million non-recurring gain on extinguishment of a forward contract liability. Liquidity after the May 2026 IPO is $7.4 billion of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash plus $1.2 billion of marketable securities at 2026-06-30, against a $918.2 million OpenAI working capital loan and a $1.4 billion accumulated deficit.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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