QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
CITIGROUP INC (C)
As of 2026-11-06 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +19% · downside -24% · upside +47%
Section 13's base — FY2025 net income of $13.02B at the derived 16.0x P/E (N14, N25) — is the wrong base: it is ten months stale (N10) and predates a run-rate of $9.06 of 9M 2026 EPS (Q1 $3.06, Q2 $3.15, Q3 $2.85; S96, S95, S94) and consensus FY2026 EPS of $11.44, +43.5% (S92, S74, S85). On that base Citi trades near 10x forward earnings and roughly 1.03x 3Q26 book value per share of $115.61 (N1, S94) while cutting its share count 7.5% year over year (S60, N18), so the 'premium multiple' in the comp table is an artifact of old earnings, not a reason to short. The deep-value case is nevertheless thin: FY2025 ROE was 6.1% (N24), Q3 2026 ROE 10.1% and RoTCE 11.5% (S5), still below the 14-15% medium-term target (S90, S58), and book is at ~1.03x, not at a distressed discount. Base case 11.5x FY2027E EPS of $12.36 gives ~$142 (+19%); a card credit cycle at 9.5x $9.50 gives ~$90 (-24%); delivery of 14-15% ROTCE at 13x $13.50 gives ~$176 (+47%) — positive skew but base is short of the +30% the rule requires, hence watch, not long.
Key numbers
- Share price: $119.44
- Market cap: $208.94B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): $85.22B
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 16.0x
- Price / book: 0.98x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The only source is a six-year XBRL fact set (FY2020–FY2025), so the business notes are limited to the consolidated P&L, balance sheet and cash-flow/capital-return lines. FY2025 revenue was $85.22B, the highest of the six years shown, with pre-tax income of $19.83B and net income of $13.02B; equity stood at $212.29B and cash at $349.58B at 2025-12-31. The revenue path never fell 10% in any year of the window, and FY2025 buybacks of $13.25B were the largest of the six years, cutting diluted shares to 1,873.1M. Nothing in the source describes segments, channels, unit economics or the split between operating and one-off items.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not establish a durable competitive advantage. Citi's FY2025 10-K describes a highly competitive industry and lists brand/reputation, product quality and pricing, distribution/technology, execution, regulation and employee retention as competitive factors, but gives no quantified moat. FY2025 scale is large—revenue $85.22B, equity $212.29B—and net income has been positive every year FY2020-FY2025 but volatile ($20.76B in FY2021, $7.85B in FY2023, $13.02B in FY2025), so the record shows scale and earnings, not a proven high-return franchise. Competitors are broad: financial services and advisory firms plus some non-financial services firms, competing globally and by product/region for clients and capital.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) showed revenue of $23.845B, up 8%, and net income of $5.245B, or $2.85 per share, up 40% reported; excluding the prior-year $726M Banamex goodwill impairment, net income rose 17%. NII rose 14% while NIR fell 4%, expenses fell 2% and produced positive operating leverage, but provisions rose to $2.586B and USCC income fell 8%. CET1 was 12.8% and Citi returned $4.1B to common shareholders; outlook was qualitative macro risk, with no numeric guidance.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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