QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Blackstone Inc. (BX)
As of 2026-11-06 · 11/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -12% · downside -26% · upside +18%
The market is capitalizing BX on TTM earnings and fee-growth momentum, but the cycle base is the six-year FY2020-FY2025 average net income of $2.64B, or $3.52/share on 751.12M shares; at $119.50 that is 34.0x normalized versus the given 25.2x TTM P/E on $3.56B TTM net income. Using BX's own 25.2x as downside, 30x as base, and the 40.1x CG peer multiple as upside gives $88.7, $105.5, and $141.0, or -25.8%, -11.7%, and +18.0% versus today. The fee engine ($1.57B Q3 FRE, +6%) and $1.37T AUM are real, but $6.73B TTM dividends exceed $3.56B TTM net income, share count is rising, and 40.2% ROE sits on only $8.84B equity against $26.10B debt. That is a negative skew, but it does not clear the short rule and the normalized base is not low enough to own; watch.
Key numbers
- Share price: $119.50
- Market cap: $89.76B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $16.08B
- P/E (TTM): 25.2x
- Price / book: 10.16x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Blackstone is an alternative asset manager with more than $1.3T of Total Assets Under Management at 2025-12-31, organized in four segments and earning management fees plus performance revenues/carried interest. FY2021 revenue of $22.58B fell to $8.52B in FY2022 and recovered to $14.45B in FY2025, with pre-tax income of $13.56B, $3.46B and $7.17B respectively. The oldest filing records the 2019 LP-to-corporation conversion and 2021 share-class changes, while the latest highlights private wealth and perpetual capital. The sources do not provide TTM figures or segment-level revenue.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Blackstone's sources describe an intensely competitive asset management industry with no durable structural moat; it competes on investment performance, reputation, access to capital and talent, and price, with fee pressure in private wealth/insurance and many well-capitalized rivals for deals. Scale has grown via perpetual capital vehicles whose fees are a significant and growing share of revenues. Financial history shows highly cyclical revenue and earnings (FY2021 revenue $22.58B, net income $5.86B; FY2022 revenue $8.52B, net income $1.75B; FY2025 revenue $14.45B, net income $3.02B) but positive net income and operating cash flow each year FY2020-FY2025, and ROE of 62% FY2021, 23% FY2022, 35% FY2025.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 was a flat revenue quarter sitting on a much stronger nine months: total revenues $3.06bn, down 1% y/y, while 9M 2026 revenues were $11.72bn, up 16%. The recurring fee engine grew (management and advisory fees net +6% in Q3 2026, +10% for 9M 2026), but realized performance allocations fell 17% and unrealized performance allocations swung to -$627.1m, so total investment income dropped 17%. Pre-tax income still rose 6% to $1.53bn on a 7% expense decline, and net income attributable to Blackstone Inc. was $662.4m for the quarter and $2.54bn for 9M 2026 (+27%). Management gave no numeric guidance in these sections; it flagged slower Q3 capital markets activity and higher rates, and added no new risk factors.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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