QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Bloom Energy Corp (BE)
As of 2026-11-06 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case -53% · downside -70% · upside +42%
Bloom now earns real money — TTM to Sep 30, 2026 EBIT $567.4M, EBITDA $621.4M, net income $522.9M and free cash flow $436.7M — but at a $52.40B EV the market pays 84.3x EBITDA and 100.2x earnings, roughly four times the 11.5x-22.7x EBITDA band where profitable peers trade. My base case is 40x TTM EBITDA (still above the best peer) on $621.4M = ~$24.9B EV, ~$84/share, or -53%; 25x gives ~$15.4B EV, ~$52/share, -70%; the upside needs EBITDA to double to ~$1.24B and a 60x multiple to hold, ~$252/share, +42% — a favourable case that needs both the earnings and a 3-4x peer multiple. I use TTM earnings, not a cycle average, as the base because FY2025 net income was still -$87.1M against +$72.8M operating income, so averaging the window would understate the current run-rate rather than normalize it. The short rule is not met only because the upside case (+42%) breaches the +25% cap, so this is a watch: the overvaluation is real and the balance sheet offers no cushion (cash $2.49B against debt $2.48B plus $120.5M leases), but the tail is too fat to be paid for with a short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $177.25
- Market cap: $52.40B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $3.83B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 84.3x
- P/E (TTM): 100.2x
- Price / book: 27.11x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
FY2020 10-K describes Bloom Energy as a solid oxide fuel-cell platform sold as an integrated behind-the-meter solution to enterprises and utilities, with U.S. financing partners and Korea as a major market. FY2020-FY2025 XBRL shows revenue rising from $731.2M to $2.00B and gross profit from $165.8M to $587.4M; operating income turned positive in FY2024 (+$22.9M) and FY2025 (+$72.8M), but net income stayed negative (-$87.1M FY2025). Operating cash flow was negative FY2020-FY2023 and positive only in FY2024 ($92.0M) and FY2025 ($113.9M), while cash rose to $2.45B and diluted shares to 240.40M by FY2025.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The data show improving scale economics: revenue rose from $731.2M in FY2020 to $2.00B in FY2025, gross profit from $165.8M to $587.4M, and operating income turned positive in FY2024 ($22.9M) and FY2025 ($72.8M). But net income was negative in every year through FY2025 (-$87.1M), so the operating turn has not produced bottom-line profits. The sources name no competitors, customers, licences, patents, switching costs or market share, so they do not establish a durable advantage; at most they show a recent cost/scale improvement.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue accelerated: total revenue was $1,235.837 million, up 138.1% y/y, and product revenue was $1,073.610 million, up 179.4%; nine-month 2026 revenue was $3,052.256 million, up 144.9%. Liquidity remains large—$2,486.7 million cash at 2026-09-30—and nine-month 2026 operating cash flow was positive $272.895 million versus negative $304.124 million in 2025, while inventory rose $285.5 million. The 10-Q flags margin pressure from freight/inflation and new risks around data-center opposition, AI/data-center financing, and a July 2026 short-seller report; buybacks and gross margin are not in the supplied excerpt.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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