QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
BOEING CO (BA)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -19% · upside +16%
Cycle normalization is unusable here: FY2020-FY2025 operating income sums to -$26.4B and cumulative FCF to -$33.6B, so the base must be the TTM recovery run-rate, with TTM EBIT of $9.73B (N13) versus FY2025's $4.28B and no positive cycle-average earnings base (S2, S24). On that base, TTM EBITDA of $12.02B (N14) at 14.1x (N26) gives about $170B EV, exactly the quoted $170.08B EV (N24) and today's $172.50 price (N1), so the base case is 0%. Downside at 12x: $12.02B x 12 = $144.2B EV, less $33.4B net debt = $110.8B equity / 792.45M shares (N5) = about $140, or -19%. Upside at 16x: $12.02B x 16 = $192.3B EV, less $33.4B net debt = $158.9B equity / 792.45M shares = about $201, or +16%. That is roughly 1:1 with no margin of safety; the problems look mostly temporary, but they have not yet become cash, so the long/short rule is not met and the stock is a pass.
Key numbers
- Share price: $172.50
- Market cap: $136.70B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $94.91B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 14.1x
- P/E (TTM): 18.7x
- Price / book: 20.88x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Latest 10-K describes Boeing as three reportable segments—BCA, BDS and BGS—down from four in the FY2020 filing, which also included Boeing Capital. FY2025 XBRL shows revenue $89.46B, gross profit $4.29B, operating income $4.28B, net income $1.89B and operating cash flow $1.06B, after operating losses in each FY2020-FY2024. The workforce was ~182,000 at Dec 31, 2025 versus ~141,000 at Dec 31, 2020, and the sources document major strikes in 2024 and 2025. The sources do not break out segment revenue/margins or one-off items.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show scale and an installed-base services network, but not a durable earnings advantage: FY2020-FY2025 gross profit was negative in two of six years (-$5.68B FY2020, -$1.99B FY2024) and operating income was negative in four of six, turning positive only in FY2025 at $4.28B on $89.46B revenue. Competition is named and explicit in both core segments (Airbus and Chinese entrants in BCA; General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and SpaceX in BDS), and fixed-price, indexed contracts have pushed large reach-forward losses ($4.9B on 777X in 2025 alone) onto the P&L. The most defensible assets in the filings are the BGS life-cycle services network and the regulatory/FAA gating of production, both of which the company describes as constraints as much as moats.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose to $24,188M from $23,270M, and GAAP operating earnings turned to $354M from a $4,781M loss, but the company still posted a $116M net loss attributable to shareholders and a $0.26 diluted loss per share. The operating swing was largely the absence of the prior-year $4.9B 777X reach-forward loss at BCA, plus a $252M BDS gain on an equity-method investment sale; BCA remained loss-making at $697M. Cash flow turned positive in the first nine months with $2,681M operating cash, debt fell to $45.9B, while inventory and supplier shortages plus production-rate delays remained key operating risks.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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