QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -21% · upside +13%
Using the section 13 base of TTM to Sep 30 2026 net income to common of $12.17B (N14) on 670.55M shares (N5), today's $320.99 price (N1) is 17.7x (N25) and 6.01x book (N26) for a 34.0% ROE (N24); I do not use normalized or averaged earnings, and FY2025 net income was lower at $10.78B. My base case holds the current 17.7x multiple, roughly $12.17B x 17.7 = $215.4B, or about $321/share, essentially 0% versus today. The downside is a bank-peer multiple: at JPM's 13.9x, $12.17B x 13.9 = $169.2B / 670.55M = about $252, -21%; at COF's 11.7x it is about $212, -34%. The upside is 20x, $12.17B x 20 = $243.4B / 670.55M = about $363, +13%, still below the +30% long threshold; at 17.7x the market is not missing enough to buy, but the one-year de-rating and raised guidance make it a watch rather than a pass.
Key numbers
- Share price: $320.99
- Market cap: $215.24B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $77.59B
- P/E (TTM): 17.7x
- Price / book: 6.01x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
American Express is a payments and premium-lifestyle company that earns primarily from card spending and secondarily from finance charges and fees, with merchant acquiring and a card network supporting the model. FY2025 scale was $1,670B worldwide billed business and 86.6M proprietary cards-in-force versus $870.7B and 68.9M in FY2020. Between the oldest and newest 10-K, the reporting structure moved from three segments to four, product breadth expanded into banking/financing and expense management, and revenue rose from $21.97B in FY2020 to $41.30B in FY2025.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show AXP as a scaled but not top-tier card network: FY2025 10-K says it is the fourth largest general-purpose card network globally by purchase volume, behind Visa, China UnionPay and Mastercard, with a premium and cobrand customer focus. From FY2020 to FY2025 revenue, pre-tax income, net income and equity rose, while diluted shares fell, showing earnings and capital generation. But the 10-K and risk factors describe intense competition from larger networks, issuers, fintech and alternative payments, and for cobrand partners; brand, rewards, acceptance and partner relationships are named competitive factors, not proven durable moats. No margin, ROE or price/book history is given.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 total revenues net of interest expense rose 9% year over year to $20,062M and billed business rose 8% to $454.0B; nine-month 2026 revenues rose 10% to $58,606M. Credit metrics improved: provisions fell 23% to $985M and the Card net write-off rate was 2.1% versus 2.2%. Net income was $3,712M, or $5.42 diluted EPS, but included a $751M after-tax GBTG gain and a $253M after-tax restructuring charge; Q3 2026 capital returns were $2.2B and CET1 was 10.9%. The 10-Q gave only an expense-moderation outlook and no new specific risk factors, referring to the 2025 Form 10-K.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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