QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ASML HOLDING NV (ASML)
As of 2026-11-06 · 8/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction low · base case +32% · downside -11% · upside +60%
The market is still pricing ASML off FY2025's €12.33B EBITDA and 38.7x EV/EBITDA (N16, N27) while ignoring the 2026 step-up: FY2026 guidance is €44-45B sales at ~56% gross margin, Q3 2026 operating margin was 44.4%, and the Q4 guide implies full-year EBIT of ~€18.1B and EBITDA of ~€19.2B after excluding the €0.51B Q3 equity gain. On 385.42M shares (N5) and ~€8.35B net cash (Q3 cash €12.735B less €4.39B debt, S26/N23), 22x/33x/40x EV/EBITDA gives $1,253 (-11%), $1,868 (+32%) and $2,259 (+60%); I use 33x as the base because it is a premium to the 22.5-26.6x peer cluster but below ASML's own FY2025 38.7x (N27). The de-rating is AI-capex fear, not an operating miss, and backlog plus 2027 capacity additions support the growth leg; the risk is that a 25x multiple on FY2026E EBITDA is roughly today's price, so the call needs the premium to hold. Long, medium conviction.
Key numbers
- Share price: $1,415.13
- Market cap: $545.42B
- Latest financial period: FY Dec 2025 to Dec 31, 2025
- Revenue (FY Dec 2025): €32.67B
- EV / EBITDA (FY Dec 2025): 38.7x
- P/E (FY Dec 2025): 50.6x
- Price / book: 24.77x
The 15 boxes
- ○ 1. Long-form business notes
The only usable source is a six-year XBRL table in EUR: FY2025 revenue was €32.67B, operating income €11.30B and net income €9.61B, versus FY2020 revenue of €13.98B, operating income €4.05B and net income €3.55B. FY2025 operating cash flow was €12.66B against capex of €1.57B, and buybacks were €5.95B. The source gives consolidated annual figures only; it does not describe segments, channels, unit economics, product history or any FY2026 results.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources show a business with pricing power and scale rather than one competing on price: FY2025 gross margin was 52.8% (up 1.5pp), operating income €11.30B on €32.67B of net sales, and net income of €9.61B sits below operating income so the profit is operating, not one-off. The advantage the sources actually evidence is technology plus ordered backlog — €38.8B of backlog at the FY2025 report date against €32.67B of FY2025 sales, with EUV throughput raised from 160 to 230 wafers per hour and more than 400,000 wafers already run on High NA systems at customer sites. High margins, €12.66B of FY2025 operating cash flow against €1.57B of capex and €4.7bn of annual R&D are consistent with a durable moat, but the sources never name a competitor or a market share figure, so rivalry cannot be sized from them.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
ASML's latest quarterly disclosure is the Q3 2026 6-K results release (Oct 14, 2026), not a 10-Q. Q3 2026 total net sales were €11.662bn, up from €9.326bn in Q2 2026, with gross margin 57.5%, operating margin 44.4% and net income €4.960bn; cash and short-term investments were €12.735bn and Q3 operating cash flow €11.798bn. Guidance is Q4 2026 net sales €14.2-15.2bn and FY2026 €44-45bn at ~56% gross margin. The H1 2026 statutory interim report showed 17.2% sales growth but lower gross margin and no new risk factors.
- ○ 4. Corporate governance
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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