QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
AMPHENOL CORP /DE/ (APH)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -15% · downside -31% · upside +22%
The market is paying a semi-cap-like multiple for a connector company: on the TTM to Sep 30 2026 base APH trades at 31.0x P/E, 18.6x EV/EBITDA and a 2.8% FCF yield, versus TE Connectivity at 19.7x/13.2x, so the operating strength is real but already capitalized. Using section 13's TTM base (EBITDA $10.58B, net debt ~$13.14B, 2,469.26M shares; no cycle-average normalization), 16.0x EV/EBITDA gives $169.3B EV, $156.1B equity and ~$63.2/share, -15.2% from $74.59, which is my base. The downside at TEL's 13.2x EBITDA is ~$51 (-31.3%), and the upside at LRCX's 22.5x is ~$91 (+22.1%), so the short rule is not met because the base is not -30% or worse. I would watch, not own: the business has improved into a three-segment AI-datacom interconnect group, but the price leaves no deep-value margin of safety.
Key numbers
- Share price: $74.59
- Market cap: $184.18B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $33.05B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 18.6x
- P/E (TTM): 31.0x
- Price / book: 10.76x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
FY2025 Amphenol sells connectors/interconnect systems, antennas, sensors and cable into diversified end markets through three reportable segments: Communications Solutions (52% of 2025 net sales), Harsh Environment Solutions (26%) and Interconnect and Sensor Systems (22%). The FY2020 10-K had only two segments, Interconnect Products and Assemblies (96% of 2020 net sales) and Cable Products and Solutions (4%). Revenue rose from $8.60B in FY2020 to $23.09B in FY2025, operating income from $1.64B to $5.87B and operating cash flow from $1.59B to $5.37B. Amphenol invested ~$3.8B in five acquisitions in 2025 and closed the ~$10.5B CommScope acquisition on Jan 9, 2026, its largest ever.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Amphenol’s evidence points to a durable scale-and-design-in advantage, not a single-patent moat: FY2025 revenue was $23.09B, operating income $5.87B and operating cash flow $5.37B, with computed operating margin up to 25.4% from 19.1% in FY2020. Backlog rose to about $8.9B at Dec 31, 2025 from $6.1B a year earlier, and the 10-K cites global manufacturing in about 40 countries and approved-vendor design wins with customers. It still competes in all areas with large peers such as TE Connectivity, Molex, Aptiv and Luxshare, plus many smaller specialists, and the sources give no market-share data.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) was a step-change quarter: net sales $10,229.7 versus $6,194.4 in Q3 2025, up 65% in dollars and 37% organically, with acquisitions adding 28 points (Communications Solutions +99% total, +51% organic on AI-related IT datacom). Operating leverage pushed Q3 GAAP operating margin to 29.5% (adjusted 29.7%) from 27.5% and nine-month margin to 28.0% (adjusted 29.0%) from 24.9%, aided by a $15.0 Q3/$95.0 nine-month IEEPA tariff recovery benefit. Growth was funded with debt and cash: interest expense rose to $212.3 in Q3 from $80.7, the effective tax rate jumped to 27.4% in Q3 and 30.3% for nine months on $389.0 of discrete tax items (including $160.0 of additional China obligations), and cash fell to $5,301.4 at 2026-09-30 from $11,434.2 at 2025-12-31 after $12,979.2 of nine-month investing outflows. Operating cash flow of $4,757.2 for nine months 2026 still exceeded prior-year $3,652.5.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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