QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)
As of 2026-11-06 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -66% · upside +44%
The market is not missing Airbnb's growth; it is paying 32.8x TTM EV/EBITDA and 35.4x P/E for it, while the base case at the same 32.8x is $3.15B EBITDA x 32.8 = $103.32B EV, plus $12.59B cash less $2.37B debt less $0.272B leases = $113.27B equity, or $189.73/share versus $189.99 today. The downside at EXPE's 8.9x is $3.15B x 8.9 = $28.04B EV, plus the same net cash = $37.98B equity, or $63.62/share (-66.5%), and the upside at MMYT's 50.7x P/E is $3.21B x 50.7 = $162.75B market cap, or $272.61/share (+43.5%). All cases use TTM to Sep 30 2026, not cycle averages. With base about flat and a -66.5%/+43.5% range, neither the long rule (base >=+30%, downside no worse than -25%) nor the short rule (base <=-30%, upside <=+25%) is met. I would watch, not buy: the cash generation and network are real, but at this price the reward/risk is unfavorable unless the premium multiple persists.
Key numbers
- Share price: $189.99
- Market cap: $113.42B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $13.93B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 32.8x
- P/E (TTM): 35.4x
- Price / book: 12.18x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Airbnb runs a two-sided global marketplace: hosts list stays, experiences, and, since May 2025, services, and guests book through its website/app across 220+ countries. The FY2020-to-FY2025 arc runs from Covid-hit losses (FY2020 revenue $3.38B, operating loss $3.59B) to FY2025 revenue $12.24B, operating income $2.54B, and operating cash flow $4.65B, with buybacks rising to $3.79B. The newest 10-K shows expansion beyond stays, more AI/social app features, a rebuilt tech stack, and host-protection/trust investments; the oldest shows a host/Experiences-led community recovering from Covid. Sources do not provide bookings/nights, take rate, segment/geographic revenue, Q2 2026/TTM figures, or guidance.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Airbnb's advantage is real but softer than a licence or switching-cost moat: a two-sided network (over 5 million hosts, 2.5 billion guest arrivals, 220+ countries) and a brand strong enough that management says it relies less on paid marketing. The financial record backs an asset-light, cash-generative model — operating cash flow rose every year FY2020 to FY2025 ($4.65B in FY2025) with capex effectively nil — but operating income has been flat at $2.55B (FY2024) and $2.54B (FY2025) despite revenue growing $11.10B to $12.24B, and FY2023's $4.79B net income sits on pre-tax income of only $2.10B, so it cannot be read as operating strength. Competition is named and broad: Booking, Expedia/VRBO, Trip.com, Google and AI-powered travel search, Marriott/Hilton/Accor/Wyndham, property managers, and experience platforms; regulation (NYC's 2023 de facto ban) can switch the network off city by city.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-09-30) showed revenue of $4,869 million, up 19% (16% constant currency), on Nights and Seats Booked of 155 million (+16%) and GBV of $27,715 million (+21%), with Latin America and Asia Pacific leading and North America/EMEA moderating. Operating income was $2,021 million (42% of revenue vs 40%), total costs rose 15%, and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 52% vs 50%. Net income of $1,890 million (39% margin) is helped by a tax comparison: the prior-year quarter carried a $213 million CAMT valuation allowance, so the effective tax rate fell to 13% from 23%. Cash generation grew in dollars (operating cash flow $1,508 million; FCF $1,426 million) but FCF margin fell to 29% from 33% on heavier capex ($82 million vs $7 million) and Reserve Now, Pay Later working-capital drag.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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