QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp (XOM)
As of 2026-11-08 · 10/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -25% · upside +12%
The market is not missing a cheap asset: XOM already trades at 7.7x TTM EV/EBITDA (N25) and 16.7x TTM P/E (N28) on TTM net income of $40.62B (N12), which is 41% above FY2025's $28.84B (S2), after a 44.9% one-year run (N3). At today's 7.7x, base EBITDA of $86.50B (N11) gives $666.05B EV + $7.63B net cash (N21) = $673.68B / 4,079.22M shares (N5) = $165.15, -0.4% vs $165.87 (N1). Downside: removing an annualized $21.32B Q3 2026-vs-Q3 2025 Energy Products uplift (S28, S30) leaves $65.18B EBITDA; 7.7x = $501.92B EV + $7.63B net cash = $509.55B / 4,079.22M shares = $124.91 (-24.7%). Upside: adding an annualized $10.8B Q3 derivative timing headwind (S28, S30) gives $97.30B EBITDA; 7.7x = $749.21B EV + $7.63B = $756.84B / shares = $185.54 (+11.8%). The negative skew and lack of margin of safety make this a watch, not a long or short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $165.87
- Market cap: $676.62B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $396.63B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.7x
- P/E (TTM): 16.7x
- Price / book: 2.55x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
The provided Exxon Mobil Corporation sources describe an integrated energy and petrochemical company; FY2025 revenue was $332.24B, with pre-tax income $41.27B and net income $28.84B. Across FY2023-FY2025, revenue was $344.58B, $349.58B and $332.24B, while pre-tax income and net income stepped down each year and operating cash flow was $55.37B, $55.02B and $51.97B. The latest Item 1 adds lower-emission/new-business opportunities versus the FY2020 Item 1, and regular employees fell from 72 thousand at year-end 2020 to 58 thousand at year-end 2025.
- ○ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable competitive advantage is visible in the sources. The 10-K calls the businesses fundamentally commodity businesses whose earnings move with oil, gas and petrochemical prices and margins; FY2023-FY2025 XBRL shows pre-tax income falling from $52.78B to $41.27B while revenue was roughly flat ($344.58B to $332.24B). Scale shows up in cash flow (FY2025 OCF $51.97B) and equity ($259.39B), but capital intensity (FY2025 capex $28.36B) and competitor capacity/technology risk point to a price-taker, not a moat. Sources name only 'competitors' generically, not specific rival companies.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 earnings were $15,413 million versus $7,500 million in Q3 2025, with adjusted earnings of $17,505 million ($4.23/share adjusted vs $3.72 GAAP) — the quarter was a refining-margin and price quarter, partly offset by large unfavorable derivative mark-to-market timing effects ($1,980 million in Energy Products, $720 million in Upstream). Cash generation was strong: $25.7 billion operating cash flow and $19.1 billion free cash flow in Q3 2026, $9.4 billion returned to shareholders, total debt down to $34.3 billion and net debt to capital at 7.5%. Guidance is numeric where given: $27–29 billion of 2026 capex and $20 billion of announced 2027 buybacks. Identified items (asset-sale gains, financial reserves, Middle East impairment/hedge losses) are disclosed separately from the operating drivers and should be kept out of operating earnings.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 9. Insider trading interpretation
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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