QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
TERAWULF INC. (WULF)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case none · downside -34% · upside +39%
The market is no longer paying for bitcoin mining alone: Q3 2026 HPC lease revenue was $62.986M, ~83% of $76.230M total, versus $7.203M a year earlier, and the 20-year ~401 MW Anthropic lease has Google credit support [S29, S31, S37, S34]. What it is still missing is an operating profit: TTM EBIT is -$477.1M, EBITDA -$370.1M, FCF -$3.11B after $2.85B capex, and debt of $3.15B sits against $870.7M equity [N13, N15, N19, N18, N22, N24]. At today's 37.98x EV/Sales, the section-13 $190.8M TTM revenue base gives ~$7.25B EV; less $1.55B net debt and divided by 501.52M shares is ~$11.37, so base is 0% [S1, N11, N21, N22, N5, N1]. A fall back to FY2024's $140.1M revenue is $7.52/share (-33.9%); a $250M revenue run-rate, still below the $700M leasing target, is $15.84 (+39.3%) [S24, S58]. The rule is not met either way — base is not +30% and downside is worse than -25% — so watch, with the high short interest a squeeze risk rather than a value case [N28, N29, N30].
Key numbers
- Share price: $11.37
- Market cap: $5.70B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $190.8M
- Price / book: 6.55x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
TeraWulf is now a vertically integrated developer, owner and operator of utility-scale HPC data-center campuses, with 522 MW of contracted critical IT load across Lake Mariner (Barker, NY, NYISO) and the Abernathy JV campus (Texas, SPP) plus a Cayuga ground lease in Lansing, NY. Revenue is still majority bitcoin mining — $168.5M in FY2025, $140.1M in FY2024 — but management states HPC hosting is the primary growth driver, backed by 10- to 25-year leases to Core42 and Fluidstack with Google credit support. The build-out is being funded through a very large capital program: capex of $1.06B in FY2025 versus $267.9M in FY2024, with FY2025 operating income of -$186.2M, operating cash flow of -$123.2M and $3.27B of cash at 2025-12-31. The oldest annual report on file (FY2020, dated 2021-03-03) is IKONICS Corporation, a Minnesota screen-print emulsion and abrasive-etching manufacturer with 58 employees — so the filing history captures a complete change of business, from a small specialty chemicals manufacturer to a power-anchored digital infrastructure developer.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
No durable advantage is shown. TeraWulf competes for the same scarce inputs it sells — high-power sites, cheap electricity and capital — against REITs, hyperscalers and infrastructure funds, and holds no patents, so the moat is a physical footprint, not a brand, licence or switching cost. The financial record backs that up: operating income was negative in each of FY2022-FY2025 (worst at -$186.2M in FY2025), gross profit fell to $66.0M in FY2025 from $69.8M in FY2024 even as revenue rose to $168.5M from $140.1M, and operating cash flow was -$123.2M against $1.06B of capex. Growth has been financed, not earned, and customer contracts that can bar it from serving a customer's competitors limit how broadly the asset can be sold.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose to $76.2m from $50.6m on HPC leasing, which was ~83% of revenue; nine-month revenue was $155.0m vs $132.6m. The $709.9m Q3 net income is not an operating-profit signal: it benefited from a non-cash warrant fair-value change and included a $95m Abernathy sale gain, while Adjusted EBITDA was $(12.8)m. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were ~$2.4bn at Sep 30 2026, and the 10-Q reports no material risk-factor changes.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
Sign in with a QuantSignals Premium or Gold plan to read every box: each point linked to the SEC filing it came from, the bull and bear case, and the comparables. QS Research powers the signals behind FST, our autonomous trading agent.