QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Vistra Corp. (VST)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: LONG
Conviction medium · base case +73% · downside +46% · upside +84%
At $124.80 the market capitalizes Vistra at $61.05B EV, only 8.4x the 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $7.3B and 7.5x the initiated 2027 midpoint of $8.1B, while the stock's own TTM EV/EBITDA is 11.3x and 2026/2027 generation is ~100%/98% hedged. Applying today's 11.3x to the 2027 midpoint gives $215.6/share (+72.8%), and even the 2026 low end gives $182.0 (+45.8%); the upside 2027 high gives $229.1 (+83.6%). The caveat is that this is not a mid-cycle valuation: FY2020-FY2025 average EBITDA was $2.98B versus $5.42B TTM, so on normalized earnings the stock would be expensive; the long rests on hedged forward earnings and the raised guidance, not on the cycle. I therefore call it long, with medium conviction because leverage and the forward-multiple assumption remain the swing factors.
Key numbers
- Share price: $124.80
- Market cap: $41.89B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $19.21B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 11.3x
- P/E (TTM): 20.7x
- Price / book: 13.93x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Vistra makes money as an integrated retail electricity and power generator: about 5 million retail customers across 18 states plus DC and 43,641 MW of net generation at Dec 31, 2025, sold through five segments and dispatched into major U.S. wholesale markets. The business changed from FY2020, when it reported about 4.5 million customers, 20 states plus DC, about 38,700 MW and six segments including Sunset, to FY2025 with five segments and no Sunset. The XBRL history shows cyclical results: revenue went from $10.85B in FY2020 to $17.70B in FY2021, $13.80B in FY2023 and $17.59B in FY2025, while operating income was negative in FY2021 and FY2022 and positive in FY2023-FY2025.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Scale is documented and large — 43,641 MW of net capacity at December 31, 2025, about 5 million retail customers, and over 230 TWh of expected annual generation — but the six-year record shows no stable margin to prove a durable advantage: operating margin swings from -8.5% (FY2021) to 27.6% (FY2024) and back to 10.9% (FY2025), all computed from XBRL revenue and operating income. Generation is sold at one market-clearing price per ISO/RTO, so the only advantage management actually names is the combination of retail load with owned generation, which it calls a fundamental competitive advantage but does not quantify with segment margins. The clearest licence-based assets are the six nuclear units, licensed to 2036-2053 with fuel contracted through 2030.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q2 2026 10-Q shows a flat-to-down quarter on revenue ($4,017M vs $4,250M in Q2 2025) but a big step up in adjusted cash earnings: consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1,744M vs $1,332M, Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $1,767M, up more than 30%. GAAP net income fell to $305M from $327M, mainly because the quarter carried a $472M unrealized commodity-hedge loss (Q2 2025 had a $16M unrealized gain); Q2 2025 also held a $68M long-lived asset impairment and $101M of insurance income versus $48M this quarter. The 10-Q reaffirms the trend is being driven by realized capacity prices and energy margins, not by mark-to-market, and the earnings release reaffirms 2026 guidance of $6.8–7.6B Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and $3.925–4.725B FCFbG.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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