QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
VIASAT INC (VSAT)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case 0% · downside -23% · upside +30%
The market is not missing a durable moat: VSAT trades at 9.7x EV/EBITDA (N24) on $1.41B TTM EBITDA (N14) while TTM net income is -$96.6M (N15) and EBIT is only $80.1M (N12), so the equity is a levered call on EBITDA holding. Q2 FY2027 revenue grew 3% but cost of revenue grew 6%, operating margin fell to 1% from 3%, and the net loss was 10% of revenue (S29), which makes the downside real. At today's 9.7x, base TTM EBITDA gives about $63.8/share (-0.2%); a 15% EBITDA decline gives about $49.0/share (-23.3%), and a 20% EBITDA increase gives about $83.4/share (+30.5%). Dated defense/Equatys catalysts are worth watching, but the base case is essentially today's price, so this is a watch, not a long or short.
Key numbers
- Share price: $63.95
- Market cap: $8.90B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $4.66B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 9.7x
- Price / book: 1.98x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Viasat is a vertically integrated satellite operator and equipment maker that now reports two segments — communication services (aviation in-flight connectivity, government satcom, maritime, fixed broadband, plus satellite/terminal products) and defense and advanced technologies (encryption/cyber, space and mission systems, tactical networking) — versus three segments (satellite services, commercial networks, government systems) in the FY2021 10-K. The May 30, 2023 Inmarsat acquisition is the main reason revenue went from $1.92B in FY2021 to $4.64B in FY2026. Scale has shifted to mobility: at March 31, 2026 the company had IFC in service on ~4,580 commercial aircraft and ~2,100 business jets and served ~13,200 maritime vessels, while U.S. fixed broadband fell from ~590,000 subscribers (March 31, 2021) to ~130,000 (March 31, 2026) at $113 average monthly revenue per user. FY2026 was the only year in the six-year data with positive operating income (+$108.1M) and pre-tax income (+$104.8M), yet net income was still -$34.1M, so it is not a profitable year on the bottom line; operating cash flow was $1.59B.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources do not establish a durable competitive advantage. Viasat claims spectrum and market access, a safety-certified L-band network, bandwidth efficiency, security and integration/bundling, but the 10-K describes highly competitive markets with larger rivals and LEO/Starlink disruption. FY2021-FY2025 operating income was negative, FY2026 operating income was $108.1M while net income was still -$34.1M, and operating cash flow was positive but capex is missing for FY2024-FY2026, so returns cannot be judged from these sources.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 FY2027 (quarter ended September 30, 2026) revenue rose 3% to $1,180.0 million, entirely on product revenue (+13% to $359.4 million) while service revenue was flat at $820.6 million; total cost of revenues grew faster (+6%, $801.1 million), so income from operations fell to 1% of revenues from 3% a year earlier and the quarter stayed a net loss (10% of revenues, 11% attributable to Viasat). Growth came from the defense and advanced technologies segment (+$50.5 million of product revenue), partly offset by a $10.4 million product decline and an $11.7 million service decline in communication services. Investment spending rose (IR&D +41% to $59.8 million, SG&A +$5.2 million to $247.0 million) and the 10-Q states no material changes to risk factors; the earnings release exhibit carries no figures.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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