QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Velo3D, Inc. (VELO)
As of 2026-11-09 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case +21% · downside -27% · upside +23%
At $5.58 the market caps VELO at $179.4M and EV $96.4M (N1, N7, N24), or 1.68x TTM EV/Sales (N25), while TTM EBIT is -$49.8M and FCF is -$58.7M (N12, N18); there is no positive normalized cycle earnings number to capitalize, so I use EV/Sales and the $83.0M net cash (N22). On section 13's Q3 2026 annualized revenue base of $78-82M (S6, N9), today's 1.68x gives $6.76 at $80M, $6.87 at $82M and, if revenue falls back to FY2025's $46.0M with $30M of cash burn, $4.05. The base case is +21%, downside -27%, upside +23%, so the long rule is not met and the short rule is not met; the stock is a watch until final Q3 2026 proves the margin/EBITDA guide or cash burn reasserts. The market is not missing the growth—it is already paying a peer-premium multiple—but it may be underappreciating the net cash floor and the near-term guide, while overpaying for a still loss-making business.
Key numbers
- Share price: $5.58
- Market cap: $179.4M
- Latest financial period: TTM to Jun 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $57.6M
- Price / book: 1.22x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
FY2025 10-K shows Velo3D is a single-segment metal additive manufacturing company that sells Sapphire printers/software and provides RPS/Expert Services; FY2025 revenue was $46.0M with gross profit of -$7.4M, so it was not profitable at the gross line. The oldest annual report here is the FY2020 JAWS Spitfire SPAC blank-check 10-K, while the latest is Velo3D's post-merger FY2025 10-K. Printer sales dominate revenue, with recurring leases and services complementary; FY2025 revenue mix was about 56% defense-related, 24% aerospace/aviation, and 20% other industrial/contract manufacturing.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
Velo3D claims a durable advantage from proprietary L-PBF technology, blue-chip customer relationships and a 57-patent IP portfolio, but the provided financials do not show it: FY2025 gross profit was -$7.4M on $46.0M revenue and operating income was -$54.9M, after FY2024 gross profit of -$2.1M and operating income of -$78.8M. It competes with other 3D-printer, materials, software and traditional metal manufacturers, many with well-recognized brands and greater financial resources. Going-concern doubt is already causing customer order delays and unfavorable supplier terms, and high customer concentration/turnover plus termination rights weaken the switching-cost case.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
The Q2 2026 10-Q (quarter ended June 30, 2026, filed 2026-08-11) shows a sharp top-line snap-back: revenue $20.7 million, up 52.3% year over year, gross margin 21.5% versus (11.7)%, but still a loss from operations of $(11.1) million and a GAAP net loss of $(11.5) million. Part of the margin swing comes from a prospective reallocation of labor and overhead out of cost of revenue and into operating expenses, and total operating expenses rose 54.9% to $15.5 million, so the operating result is not yet a profit story. Liquidity was rebuilt by equity issuance, not operations: $91.1 million of cash at June 30, 2026 versus $39.0 million at December 31, 2025, against roughly $39.5 million of first-half operating cash use, and management still says substantial doubt about going concern continues to exist. Guidance in the same-quarter release is numeric and was raised to $65-75 million of FY2026 revenue with greater than 30% gross margin and positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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