QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction medium · base case 0% · downside -11% · upside +34%
The market is treating Q3 2026's 92% GAAP net-income drop as operating deterioration, but the drop is optical: net income of $512M included a $476M pre-tax equity-revaluation loss against Q3 2025's $4.9B tax valuation release and $1.5B net revaluation benefit (S31, S102), while TTM operating cash flow is $10.73B and free cash flow is $10.42B (N15, N17). On TTM EBITDA of $7.80B (N13), net debt of $7.59B (N22) and 2,041.90M shares (N5), today's 18.9x EV/EBITDA (N26) gives about $139.8B of equity value, or roughly $68.48 per share (-0.2% versus $68.59); 16.9x gives about $60.84 (-11.3%) and 25x gives about $91.78 (+33.8%). I use 25x only as the upside because the Q4 2026 numeric guide and the AV fleet ramp are cited catalysts (S102, S62), while the base stays at today's 18.9x. The base is not +30%, so the verdict is watch rather than long; the 7.4% FCF yield and $6.19B TTM buybacks (N30, N18) make it interesting, but the 10-K's low switching costs and well-capitalized competitors (S26) keep conviction from being high.
Key numbers
- Share price: $68.59
- Market cap: $140.05B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $56.53B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 18.9x
- P/E (TTM): 40.4x
- Price / book: 5.06x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Uber runs three reportable segments as of Dec 31, 2025 — Mobility, Delivery and Freight — connecting riders, eaters/merchants, couriers, shippers and carriers across a platform available in over 70 countries. The FY2020 10-K shows four segments including ATG, which was sold to Aurora in Jan 2021; since then revenue scaled from $11.14B in FY2020 to $52.02B in FY2025 and operating income swung from -$4.86B to $5.57B. Operating cash flow went from -$2.75B to $10.10B over the same years, while FY2024 and FY2025 net income to common exceeded operating income, so those net figures include non-operating items.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The filings show a scale platform with real cash generation—FY2025 revenue $52.02B, operating income $5.57B, operating cash flow $10.10B—but not a durable moat: the 10-K itself cites low barriers to entry, low switching costs and well-capitalized competitors in nearly every major region. Competitors are named by segment, and regulation is fragmented rather than a clean license shield. The margin record is recent: operating losses through FY2022, positive operating income only from FY2023.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue rose 10% to $14.766 billion and Gross Bookings rose 20% to $59.819 billion, with Delivery and Freight growing while Mobility revenue fell 2% on UK model changes. GAAP operating income rose 30% to $1.447 billion and was 10% of revenue, but net income was $512 million after a $476 million pre-tax equity-revaluation loss; non-GAAP operating income was $2.304 billion and Adjusted EBITDA $2.963 billion. Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $10.1 billion at quarter-end, and Q3 free cash flow was $2.535 billion. Q4 2026 guidance is numeric: Gross Bookings $63.25 billion-$65.25 billion and Non-GAAP EPS $0.95-$0.99.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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