QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: SHORT
Conviction medium · base case -54% · downside -76% · upside -39%
Section 13's TTM-to-Sep-30-2026 revenue base of $103.57B (N11) is the right one; the multiple has to rerate because the operating catalyst is already visible—Q3 2026 operating income fell 56% to $718M while R&D rose 69% (S96, S29)—not merely because the stock is expensive. At my 6.0x base EV/Sales: 6.0 x $103.57B = $621.42B EV; + $36.18B net cash (N23) = $657.60B equity; / 3,952.76M shares (N5) = $166.37, or -53.6% versus $358.22 (N1). Downside at 3.0x is $87.76 (-75.5%) and upside at 8.0x is $218.77 (-38.9%), so every case is below today's price. The stock is a short: the market is still paying 13.32x TTM EV/Sales (N26) and 439.7x P/E (N30) for declining operating earnings and rising capex.
Key numbers
- Share price: $358.22
- Market cap: $1,415.96B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $103.57B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 151.0x
- P/E (TTM): 439.7x
- Price / book: 15.86x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
Tesla reports two segments—automotive and energy generation and storage—and sells directly through its website, company-owned stores/galleries, Superchargers, in-app upgrades, and energy channel partners. Between the FY2020 10-K and the latest FY2025 10-K, the stated mission shifted from accelerating sustainable energy to building a world of amazing abundance via real-world AI, with Robotaxi launched in June 2025 and Cybertruck now among five consumer vehicles. FY2025 revenue was $94.83B, gross profit $17.09B, operating income $4.36B, net income to common $3.79B, operating cash flow $14.75B, and capex $8.53B. The provided sources do not include Q3 2026 or TTM results or segment-level revenue/profit.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
The sources describe a scaled, cash-generative manufacturer but not a durable advantage: revenue grew from $53.82B (FY2021) to $94.83B (FY2025) while gross profit fell from $20.85B (FY2022) to $17.09B (FY2025) and operating income from $13.66B to $4.36B, so scale has not protected margins. Tesla's own 10-K puts every model into an 'extremely competitive' segment and says rivals have more or better-established resources; the only explicit 'competitive advantage' claim in the competition section is for energy storage (brand, modularity), plus workforce for human capital. Its patents are deliberately unenforced against EV users, battery cells come from a very limited supplier set (Panasonic, CATL), and the newest risk language is about Robotaxi (launched June 2025) and uncommercialized Bots.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 revenue was essentially flat at $28.05B, down $49M, while nine-month 2026 revenue rose 13% to $78.67B; gross margin improved to 19.6% from 18.0%, but R&D and SG&A rose sharply. Q3 2026 net income attributable to common stockholders fell $586M to $787M, with other income and tax lines carrying one-off items. Cash ended at $45.45B, nine-month operating cash flow was $14.90B and capex $13.01B, with 2026 capex guided above $20B. The 10-Q risk-factor section only refers back to the 2025 10-K; sources do not give inventory or buyback data.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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