QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
As of 2026-11-08 · 12/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: WATCH
Conviction low · base case -1% · downside -16% · upside +14%
At $162.01, TMUS trades at 7.6x TTM EV/EBITDA and 15.2x TTM P/E on TTM EBITDA of $33.84B and net income of $11.30B (N28, N31, N14, N15); at today's own multiple, the TTM base is roughly the current price, so the stock is not mispriced on current earnings. The operating trend is still positive — Q3 2026 revenue rose 7%, postpaid service revenue rose 9%, diluted EPS rose 34%, and FY2026 Core Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $37.35-$37.45B (S29, S31, S102) — but a 10% EBITDA lift at 7.6x only gets to about $185, or +14%, short of the +30% long threshold. The market is discounting postpaid account churn of 1.09% versus 0.97% and a SpaceX/Starlink wireless-entry scare (S29, S93, S81, S67); those are real but not yet proven permanent, while peer P/E of T 11.2x and VZ 11.5x argues the current premium is vulnerable if growth slows (S1, N31). I call it a watch: downside looks contained at today's multiple, but the base case does not clear the long rule and no cited rerating catalyst justifies assuming a higher multiple.
Key numbers
- Share price: $162.01
- Market cap: $171.61B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Sep 30, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $93.82B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 7.6x
- P/E (TTM): 15.2x
- Price / book: 3.05x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
TMUS makes most of its service revenue from postpaid wireless and broadband customers (81% of 2025 service revenue), with smaller prepaid and wholesale streams, and it also sells devices and accessories with device financing through 24-month EIPs. The FY2020 10-K shows the post-Sprint-merger business with 102.1M customers and a 72% postpaid service mix; the FY2025 10-K shows 142.4M customers and an 81% postpaid mix. Between FY2020 and FY2025 revenue rose from $68.40B to $88.31B and operating income from $6.64B to $18.28B, while the latest report adds 5G fixed wireless/fiber and the Mint Mobile brand.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
T-Mobile's advantage is scale plus network/spectrum: the 10-K (FY2025, filed 2026-02-11) calls it the second largest U.S. wireless provider by total postpaid and prepaid customers, and says its competitive advantage depends on industry-leading network coverage, speed and reliability with a claimed 5G leadership position. The margin history backs a real step-up: operating income went from $6.54B on $79.57B revenue in FY2022 to $18.28B on $88.31B in FY2025, and it held there. It is not a pricing-power franchise: management's own risk factor says saturation will intensify competition and pressure pricing and/or margins, and that some competitors will use discounted pricing and bundles.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q3 2026 (quarter ended Sep 30, 2026) total revenues were $23.584B, up 7% YoY, led by postpaid service revenue +9% while prepaid and wholesale declined. Net income was $3.455B (+27%) and diluted EPS $3.22 (+34%), but Q3 2026 net income included $98M net UScellular merger costs and $35M net Network Restructuring costs; Core Adjusted EBITDA was $9.620B (+11%). Management raised midpoint Core Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance and returned $3.5B to stockholders in Q3 2026. The 10-Q risk-factor update is cyberattack/security-breach risk, with no material changes to other risk factors.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ○ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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