QS Research · Michael Burry's Scion Capital analyst template · 2006
TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/ (TJX)
As of 2026-11-08 · 13/15 boxes filled from SEC filings and market data
Conclusion: PASS
Conviction low · base case none · downside -7% · upside +6%
The market is not missing TJX's quality: at $135.30 the stock trades at 24.5x TTM net income of $6.07B (N15, N31) and 15.4x TTM EBITDA of $9.44B (N14, N28), with $3.13B net cash (N24) and a 3.9% FCF yield (N32). Base case: TTM net income $6.07B x 24.5x = $148.7B / 1,099.97M shares = $135.2, essentially today's price (N1, N5). Downside: FY27 adjusted EPS guidance low of $5.15 (S64) x 24.5x = $126.18, -6.7%; upside: TTM EPS of about $5.52 grown 6.5% for a 2.5% Q3 comp midpoint (S31) plus 4% FY28 store growth (S31) x 24.5x = $143.98, +6.4%. With base near zero and thin risk/reward, this is a pass; I do not use section 13's 12x-18x peer range because it is valuation-derived, not a cited operating catalyst.
Key numbers
- Share price: $135.30
- Market cap: $148.83B
- Latest financial period: TTM to Aug 1, 2026
- Revenue (TTM): $62.36B
- EV / EBITDA (TTM): 15.4x
- P/E (TTM): 24.5x
- Price / book: 13.97x
The 15 boxes
- ✓ 1. Long-form business notes
TJX is a four-segment off-price retailer - Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada and TJX International - with Sierra reported inside Marmaxx. In FY2026 it had 5,214 stores and six branded e-commerce sites, versus over 4,500 stores and four sites in FY2021; revenue grew from $32.14B in FY2021 to $60.37B in FY2026 and net income from $90.0M to $5.49B, with FY2021 Covid-impacted. The model is opportunistic buying from about 21,000 vendors, rapid inventory turn and low-cost stores, and the FY2026 10-K still cites 7,000 total stores as long-term potential.
- ✓ 2. Competitive advantage
TJX's sources point to a scale-and-model advantage: an off-price opportunistic buying model with lean inventory, frequent turns and a treasure-hunt experience, a large global store base (over 5,200 stores and about 377,000 associates as of 2026-01-31) and a portfolio of principal trademarks. The 10-K also stresses a highly competitive retail field, with larger competitors and execution risk in buying and inventory. S28 shows revenue rising from $32.14B in the fiscal year ended 2021-01-30 to $60.37B in the fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 and net income from $90.0M to $5.49B; computed net margin was 0.3% to 9.1% and net income/ending equity 1.5% to 53.9%, so the record is strong but the sources do not quantify a durable moat.
- ✓ 3. 10-Q takeaways
Q2 FY2027 net sales rose 5% to $15.2 billion and consolidated comps rose 4%, with HomeGoods, Canada and International at 6%-7% while Marmaxx was +1%. Reported pretax margin of 13.3% and diluted EPS of $1.36 included a net $219 million/$0.14 IEEPA tariff-refund benefit; adjusted pretax margin was 11.9% (+0.5pp) and adjusted EPS was $1.22 (+11%). Cash was $6.0 billion, inventory $7.9 billion, Q2 shareholder returns $1.3 billion, and Q3 FY2027 guidance is comps +2%-3%, pretax margin 12.8%-12.9%, EPS $1.36-$1.38. The Q2 FY2027 10-Q reports no material risk-factor changes from the FY2026 10-K.
- ✓ 4. Corporate governance
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 5. Overview of the prior 3 years of 8-K filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 6. Other significant filings
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 7. Chronology of significant news and events
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 8. Comparables valuation interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 9. Insider trading interpretation
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 10. Earnings-call notes
- ✓ 11. Impression of the shareholder letter
Filled; members read this box.
- ○ 12. Scuttlebutt overview
- ✓ 13. Valuation and risk/reward summary
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 14. Current price suppression and potential catalysts
Filled; members read this box.
- ✓ 15. Conclusions
The call above.
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